It seems reasonable to me to assign a ~1/4-1/2 probability to the previous series not continuing roughly as it has. So it would be only one or two bits of surprise for me.

I suspect it is near time for you to reveal to us your "weak inside view", i.e., the analysis that suggests to you that hand-coded AI is likely to appear in the next few decades, and that is likely to appear in the form of a single machine suddenly able to take over the world.