Phil_Goetz5 comments on Observing Optimization - Less Wrong

6 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 21 November 2008 05:39AM

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Comment author: Phil_Goetz5 21 November 2008 09:27:08PM 0 points [-]

If I want to predict that the next growth curve will be an exponential and put bounds around its doubling time, I need a much finer fit to the data than if I only want to ask obvious questions like..."Do the optimization curves fall into the narrow range that would permit a smooth soft takeoff?"

This implies that you have done some quantitative analysis giving a probability distribution of possible optimization curves, and finding that only a low-probability subset of that distribution allows for soft takeoff.

Presenting that analysis would be an excellent place to start.