Caledonian2 comments on Observing Optimization - Less Wrong
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If Robin knows that Eliezer believes there is a good likelihood that Eliezer's position is wrong, why would Robin then conclude that his own position is likely to be wrong? And vice versa?
The fact that Eliezer and Robin disagree indicates one of two things: either one possesses crucial information that the other does not, or at least one of the two have made a fatal error.
The disagreement stems from the fact that each believes the other to have made the fatal error, and that their own position is fundamentally sound.