Why is Eliezer assuming that sustainable cycles of self-improvement are necessary in order to build an UberTool that will take over most industries? The Japanese Fifth Generation Computing Project was a credible attempt to build such an UberTool, but it did not much rely on recursive self-improvement (apart from such things as using current computer systems to design next-generation electronics). Contrary to common misconceptions, it did not even rely on _human level_ AI, let alone superhuman intelligence.

If this was a credible project (check the contemporary literature and you'll find extensive discussions about its political implications and the like) why not Douglas Engelbart's set of tools?