RobinHanson comments on Disappointment in the Future - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (26)
In order to score forecasts, what we really want is:
Without these we are stuck trying to guess what probability he had in mind and what probabilities others would have assigned back then to these same items.