RobinHanson comments on Disappointment in the Future - Less Wrong

9 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 01 December 2008 04:45AM

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Comment author: RobinHanson 01 December 2008 10:41:52PM 0 points [-]

In order to score forecasts, what we really want is:

  1. probabilities assigned to each item
  2. some other forecast of the same things to compare with.

Without these we are stuck trying to guess what probability he had in mind and what probabilities others would have assigned back then to these same items.