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Zack_M_Davis comments on Changing Emotions - Less Wrong

22 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 05 January 2009 12:05AM

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Comment author: Zack_M_Davis 03 October 2016 10:24:54PM 2 points [-]

That sounds like "thesis is true" or "thesis is not true" are reasonable positions. Bayesian beliefs have probabilities attached to them.

Sometimes, even people who understand Bayesian reasoning use idiomatic phrases like "believe is true" as a convenient shorthand for "assign a high probability to"! I can see how that might be confusing!

Comment author: ChristianKl 04 October 2016 05:48:40PM 0 points [-]

Most of the beliefs of the "I wouldn't defend it publically" are neither >0.999 credence or <0.001 and it's worthwhile to mentally categories them differently.

Comment author: Zack_M_Davis 04 October 2016 06:55:36PM 4 points [-]

Again, people sometimes use idiomatic English to describe subjective states of high confidence that do not literally correspond to probabilities greater than 0.999! (Why that specific threshold, anyway?)

You know, I take it back; I actually can't see how this might be confusing.