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Aron comments on Seduced by Imagination - Less Wrong

23 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 16 January 2009 03:10AM

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Comment author: Aron 16 January 2009 08:50:14AM 1 point [-]

My optimism about the future has always been inducted from historical trend. It doesn't require the mention of AI for that or most of the fun topics discussed. I would define this precisely as having the justified expectation of pleasant surprise. I don't know the specifics of how the future looks, but can generalize with some confidence that it is likely to be better than today (for people on average, if not necessarily me in particular). If you think the trend now is positive, but the result of this trend somewhere in the future is quite negative, than you have a story to tell about why. And with all stories about the future, you are likely wrong.