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Anonymous_Coward4 comments on Investing for the Long Slump - Less Wrong
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It's worse than you think. You have to find a counterparty that will never, or seldom, engage in '100-1' type bets to other people that might threaten your chances of getting future money. Yet who is offering 100-1 odds right now.
As Buffett says: it's not who you sleep with, it's who THEY're sleeping with, that is the problem.