Nominull3 comments on On Not Having an Advance Abyssal Plan - Less Wrong
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Hardly any potential catastrophies actually occur. If you only plan for the ones that actually occur (say, by waiting until they happen, or by flawlessly predicting the future), then you save a lot of mental effort.
Also, consider the difference between potential and actual catastrophe regarding how willing you will be to make a desperate effort to find the best solution.