Jay comments on On Not Having an Advance Abyssal Plan - Less Wrong

21 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 23 February 2009 08:20PM

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Comment author: Jay 24 February 2009 07:24:34PM 1 point [-]

Here are some possible reasons for not wanting to explicitly plan for future failure, more at the level of the institute than at the level of the economy:

-The board wants to build consensus and forge a diverse group of people into a coherent whole. Telling some people that they are marginal would damage this focus.

-If a funding agency finds out that you can withstand an X% cut with vital operations intact, your odds of getting your grant cut by X% skyrocket.

-The board and officers are largely tasked with selling your concept to funding agencies. Given that funding agencies are usually risk-averse in practice (despite being risk-seeking in rhetoric), any suggestion that you might fail makes it harder to get funding.

You are making a conscious effort not to fool yourself. This habit of mind is excellent in a scientist or philosopher, but does not work well in contexts involving leadership, salesmanship, and negotiation.