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strangepoop comments on Markets are Anti-Inductive - Less Wrong

30 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 26 February 2009 12:55AM

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Comment author: strangepoop 13 September 2017 10:14:19AM 0 points [-]

Is it unfair to say that prediction markets will deal with all of these cases?

I understand that's like responding to "This is a complicated problem that may remain unsolved, it is not clear that we will be able to invent the appropriate math to deal with this." with "But Church-Turing thesis!".

But all I'm saying is that it does apply generally, given the right apparatus.

Comment author: dankane 14 September 2017 04:49:03PM 0 points [-]

Unless you can explain to me how prediction markets are going to break the pattern that two different shares of the same stock have correlated prices.

I'm actually not sure how prediction markets are supposed to have an effect on this issue. My issue is not that people have too much difficulty recognizing patterns. My issue is that some patterns once recognized do not provide incentives to make that pattern disappear. Unless you can tell me how prediction markets might fix this problem, your response seems like a bit of a non-sequitur.