Carl_Shulman comments on The Pascal's Wager Fallacy Fallacy - Less Wrong

23 [deleted] 18 March 2009 12:30AM

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Comment author: Carl_Shulman 18 March 2009 07:48:29AM 2 points [-]

Pablo,

Vagueness might leave you unable to subjectively distinguish probabilities, but you would still expect that an idealized reasoner using Solomonoff induction with unbounded computing power and your sensory info would not view the probabilities as exactly balancing, which would give infinite information value to further study of the question.

The idea that further study wouldn't unbalance estimates in humans is both empirically false in the cases of a number of smart people who have undertaken it, and looks like another rationalization.