Doug_S. comments on The Pascal's Wager Fallacy Fallacy - Less Wrong

23 [deleted] 18 March 2009 12:30AM

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Comment author: Doug_S. 18 March 2009 09:48:20PM 1 point [-]

What if we phrase a Pascal's Wager-like problem like this:

If every winner of a certain lottery receives $300 million, a ticket costs $1, the chances of winning are 1 in 250 million, and you can only buy one ticket, would you buy that ticket?

There's a positive expected value in dollars, but 1 in 250 million is basically not gonna happen (to you, at least).