Rasmus_Faber2 comments on Wrong Tomorrow - Less Wrong

5 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 02 April 2009 08:18AM

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Comment author: Rasmus_Faber2 02 April 2009 09:51:26AM 0 points [-]

"It" refers to the fact that you can submit old predictions.

There is no doubt that a site like this will have some bias in which predictions are submitted. I do not doubt that it will be mostly extreme predictions that will be submitted.

But the fact that you can submit predictions, when you have considerably more knowledge (or even complete certainty) about the outcome than the predictor had when he made the prediction, seems to be a completely unnecessary source of bias.