rhollerith comments on Probability distributions and writing style - Less Wrong
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They're obviously not completely equivalent, but in cases where your measurements form some Gaussian (or similar) distribution, which is very common, the you have the choice of saying things like (to use the water-purifying example), "we're 85% confident it's at least 99.97% pure", "we're 97.7% confident it's at least 99.3% pure", "We're 99.9% confident it's at least 98.5% pure", etc., etc., each of which represents a different part of the curve. Now obviously the most complete answer here would be to say "our data are decribed by a Gaussian of mean X and st. dev. Y", but people don't frequently do that in informal contexts, so how do you reduce it to one claim with one confidence?
Would you go into why that is? It doesn't seem intuitive to me at all. Why shouldn't a relationship improve your life by just a small amount?
dclayh, I have replied to you privately.
Specifically, the first likely google hit for "dclayh" is a Livejournal user of that name, so I used Livejournal to send a private message to that user.
Contact rhollerith
Thanks for the message. Yes, I believe I'm the only "dclayh" on the internet; at least, all 77 google results are about me.