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Meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Projects

0 rocurley 23 May 2016 06:54AM

Discussion article for the meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Projects

WHEN: 23 May 2016 06:15:00PM (-0700)

WHERE: 1597 Howard St. San Francisco, CA

We'll be meeting to work on projects. Bring something to work on, come up with something there, or help other people out!

As always, I can be reached at 301-458-0764 if you need to be let in.

Discussion article for the meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Projects

Meetup : Less Wrong, More Summer, Munich Picnic

0 jasticE 22 May 2016 04:21PM

Discussion article for the meetup : Less Wrong, More Summer, Munich Picnic

WHEN: 04 June 2016 01:00:00PM (+0200)

WHERE: Barerstr. 40, Munich

POSTPONED to June 4 because of unstable weather

Location: Lawn between Pinakothek der Moderne and Museum Reich der Kristalle It's been a while! Let's have a casual picnic, chat about rationality, play Zendo, whatever. If you would like to discuss something particular, feel welcome to announce it here. If it's convenient, bring a blanket, some snacks, or drinks. But most of all yourself :) Also see Meetup event: http://www.meetup.com/LessWrongMunich/events/231308219/

Discussion article for the meetup : Less Wrong, More Summer, Munich Picnic

Meetup : Games in Kocherga club: FallacyMania, Zendo, Tower of Chaos, Training game

0 Alexander230 19 May 2016 01:58PM

Discussion article for the meetup : Games in Kocherga club: FallacyMania, Zendo, Tower of Chaos, Training game

WHEN: 25 May 2016 07:40:00PM (+0300)

WHERE: Moscow, B.Dorogomilovskaya, 5-2

Welcome to Moscow LW community makeshift games! In that games, some rationality skills are involved, so you can practise while you playing!

  • FallacyMania: it is a game where you guess logical fallacies in arguments, or practise using logical fallacies yourself (depending on team in which you will be).

Game rules: https://goo.gl/JoFl7F

  • Zendo: guessing the rules of items placement on the table.

Game rules: https://goo.gl/J7KvIF

  • Tower of Chaos: funny game with guessing the rules of human placement on a Twister mat.

Game rules: https://goo.gl/u9qgc3

  • Training Game Party: all players try to train the subject to guess and make some action without words, using only positive reinforcement.

Game rules: https://goo.gl/mNT7J3

Come to antikafe "Kocherga", ul.B.Dorogomilovskaya, 5-2. The map is here: http://kocherga-club.ru/#contacts . Nearest metro station is Kievskaya. If you are lost, call Sasha at +7-905-527-30-82.

Games begin at 19:40, the length is 3 hours.

Discussion article for the meetup : Games in Kocherga club: FallacyMania, Zendo, Tower of Chaos, Training game

Meetup : San Antonio Meetup - Double Crux Game

0 Bryan-san 18 May 2016 06:36PM

Discussion article for the meetup : San Antonio Meetup - Double Crux Game

WHEN: 22 May 2016 02:00:00PM (-0500)

WHERE: 818 nw loop 410 78216

Meetup to discuss rationality and all things LessWrong at Earth Burger. Earth Burger is a claimed "Upbeat fast-food joint supplying vegetarian burgers & sandwiches, with a drive-thru & vegan options".

Topic of the Week: The Double Crux Game

Look for the sign that says "LW".

Discussion article for the meetup : San Antonio Meetup - Double Crux Game

Meetup : LW-cologne meetup May

0 EGI 16 May 2016 08:26PM

Discussion article for the meetup : LW-cologne meetup May

WHEN: 21 May 2016 05:00:00PM (+0200)

WHERE: Marienweg 43, 50858

Monthly LW-cologne meetup. Please pm me if you wish to attend and are not in our Doodle.

Discussion article for the meetup : LW-cologne meetup May

Meetup : Melbourne Social: May

0 Maelin 16 May 2016 01:33PM

Discussion article for the meetup : Melbourne Social: May

WHEN: 20 May 2016 06:30:00PM (+1000)

WHERE: Alchemist's Refuge, 328 Little Lonsdale St, Melbourne 3000

This month's Melbourne Social Meetup is on as scheduled! (Facebook event: https://www.facebook.com/events/224476817935623 ) Social Meetups are casual get-togethers held on the third Friday of each month. They are informal affairs where we sit around and chat over a few drinks and a meal. Sometimes we will play games as well. Where? Alchemist's Refuge, downstairs at 328 Little Lonsdale St, Melbourne CBD When? Friday 20th May, starting from 6:30pm. Start time is loose so show up whenever. We are usually there until about 11pm. Dinner? We usually go for a late dinner after the event. Recently we've been going to Father's Office which offers late night a la carte dining at half price. Games? The Refuge has a few games available for borrowing. Feel free to bring a game if you'd like to play! It's usually pretty easy to rustle up a group. Contact? Any issues or questions, contact Richard on 0421231789. Hope to see you there!

Discussion article for the meetup : Melbourne Social: May

Attention! Financial scam targeting Less Wrong users

23 Viliam_Bur 14 May 2016 05:38PM

Recently, multiple suspicious user accounts were created on Less Wrong. These accounts don't post any content in the forum. Instead, they are used only to send private messages to the existing users.

Many users have received a copy of the same message, but different variants exist, too. Here are the examples I know about. If you have received a different variant, please post it in a comment below this article:

 

Hi good day. My boss is interested on donating to MIRI's project and he is wondering if he could send money through you and you donate to miri through your company and thus accelertaing the value created. He wants to use "match donations" as a way of donating thats why he is looking for people in companies like you. I want to discuss more about this so if you could see this message please give me a reply. Thank you!

 

hi. ive made 500k+ the last half year on esport betting and i can show proof. i was a great poker player before that so i have reason to believe i am good and wellsuited at this. i want to offer free education to one of the efw people that have their priorities straight in this world and will work towards minimising existential risk. the higher intelligence the better. ultimately i would like to offload some work to someone because currently i am gettin gquite a bit burnt out and i would like to study finance, and having someone take advantage of the incredible ineffeciencies in this area is of huge importance. i would like to discuss this with someone and how to make it real, and have exchange of thoughts on all of the aspects on how to best do it. i can post proof and make donations to miri to show im serious so that we or someone else could have a discussion about it

 

I don't know yet about anyone who replied and got scammed, so this is all based on indirect evidence. If you got scammed, please tell me. If you are ashamed, I can publish your story anonymously. Your story could help other potential victims.

Most likely, the scheme is the following:

  1. The scammer will send you money.
  2. Then they will ask some of the money back because they changed their mind, or they mistakenly sent you more than they wanted, or their financial situation suddenly changed, or whatever.
  3. After receiving the money from you, they will flag the original transaction as a fraud, so they get back the money they originally sent you, plus the money you sent them back. Then they disappear, or it will turn out they used a stolen identity, etc.

(Thanks to ChristianKl for explaining the system in the Open Thread.)

If you replied to the original message and now you are already in the middle of the process, please inform your bank as soon as possible! Even if the step 2 didn't happen yet, so you can still get out without losing money, warning your bank about the scammer could help other potential victims.

 

Warning: If you have already received a check or a payment confirmation, and someone is asking you to send the overpayment back quickly, do not send anything. The check or the payment confirmation is fake, and the goal is to make you send money before you find out. (Thanks to qsz for explaining.)

2016 LessWrong Diaspora Survey Results

29 ingres 14 May 2016 05:38PM

Foreword:

As we wrap up the 2016 survey, I'd like to start by thanking everybody who took
the time to fill it out. This year we had 3083 respondents, more than twice the
number we had last year. (Source: http://lesswrong.com/lw/lhg/2014_survey_results/)
This seems consistent with the hypothesis that the LW community hasn't declined
in population so much as migrated into different communities. Being the *diaspora*
survey I had expectations for more responses than usual, but twice as many was
far beyond them.

Before we move on to the survey results, I feel obligated to put a few affairs
in order in regards to what should be done next time. The copyright situation
for the survey was ambiguous this year, and to prevent that from happening again
I'm pleased to announce that this years survey questions will be released jointly
by me and Scott Alexander as Creative Commons licensed content. We haven't
finalized the details of this yet so expect it sometime this month.

I would also be remiss not to mention the large amount of feedback we received
on the survey. Some of which led to actionable recommendations I'm going to
preserve here for whoever does it next:

- Put free response form at the very end to suggest improvements/complain.

- Fix metaethics question in general, lots of options people felt were missing.

- Clean up definitions of political affilations in the short politics section.
  In particular, 'Communist' has an overly aggressive/negative definition.

- Possibly completely overhaul short politics section.

- Everywhere that a non-answer is taken as an answer should be changed so that
  non answer means what it ought to, no answer or opinion. "Absence of a signal
  should never be used as a signal." - Julian Bigelow, 1947

- Give a definition for the singularity on the question asking when you think it
  will occur.

- Ask if people are *currently* suffering from depression. Possibly add more
  probing questions on depression in general since the rates are so extraordinarily
  high.

- Include a link to what cisgender means on the gender question.

- Specify if the income question is before or after taxes.

- Add charity questions about time donated.

- Add "ineligible to vote" option to the voting question.

- Adding some way for those who are pregnant to indicate it on the number of
  children question would be nice. It might be onerous however so don't feel
  obligated. (Remember that it's more important to have a smooth survey than it
  is to catch every edge case.)

And read this thread: http://lesswrong.com/lw/nfk/lesswrong_2016_survey/,
it's full of suggestions, corrections and criticism.

Without further ado,

Basic Results:

2016 LessWrong Diaspora Survey Questions (PDF Format)

2016 LessWrong Diaspora Survey Results (PDF Format, Missing 23 Responses)

2016 LessWrong Diaspora Survey Results Complete (Text Format, Null Entries Included)

2016 LessWrong Diaspora Survey Results Complete (Text Format, Null Entries Excluded)

2016 LessWrong Diaspora Survey Results Complete (Text Format, Null Entries Included, 13 Responses Filtered, Percentages)

2016 LessWrong Diaspora Survey Results Complete (Text Format, Null Entries Excluded, 13 Responses Filtered, Percentages)

Our report system is currently on the fritz and isn't calculating numeric questions. If I'd known this earlier I'd have prepared the results for said questions ahead of time. Instead they'll be coming out later today or tomorrow.

2016 LessWrong Diaspora Survey Structure (License)

2016 LessWrong Diaspora Survey Public Dataset

(Note for people looking to work with the dataset: My survey analysis code repository includes a sqlite converter, examples, and more coming soon. It's a great way to get up and running with the dataset really quickly.)

In depth analysis:

Analysis Posts

Part One: Meta and Demographics

Aggregated Data

Effective Altruism and Charitable Giving Analysis

Mental Health Stats By Diaspora Community (Including self dxers)

How Diaspora Communities Compare On Mental Health Stats (I suspect these charts are subtly broken somehow, will investigate later)

Improved Mental Health Charts By Obormot (Using public survey data)

Political Opinions By Political Affiliation

Political Opinions By Political Affiliation Charts (By anonymous)

Blogs And Media Demographic Clusters

Calibration Question And Brier Score Analysis

More coming soon!

Survey Analysis Code

Some notes:

1. FortForecast on the communities section, Bayesed And Confused on the blogs section, and Synthesis on the stories section were all 'troll' answers designed to catch people who just put down everything. Somebody noted that the three 'fortforecast' users had the entire DSM split up between them, that's why.

2. Lots of people asked me for a list of all those cool blogs and stories and communities on the survey, they're included in the survey questions PDF above.

Public TODO:

1. Add more in depth analysis, fix the ones that decided to suddenly break at the last minute or I suspect were always broken.

2. Add a compatibility mode so that the current question codes are converted to older ones for 3rd party analysis that rely on them.

If anybody would like to help with these, write to jd@fortforecast.com

Meetup : Moscow: Fermi calculations, VNM-rationality, paranoid calibration game

0 berekuk 12 May 2016 10:45PM

Discussion article for the meetup : Moscow: Fermi calculations, VNM-rationality, paranoid calibration game

WHEN: 15 May 2016 02:00:00PM (+0300)

WHERE: ул. Большая Дорогомиловская, д.5к2

Note: most our members join meetups via other channels. Still, the correlation between "found out about Moscow meetups via lesswrong.com" and "is a great fit for our community" is very high. So we're posting just a short link to the hackpad document with the schedule here instead of the full translation of the announcement into English.

Pad with the details about 15.05.2016 meetup.

We're meeting at "Kocherga" anticafe, as usual.

Discussion article for the meetup : Moscow: Fermi calculations, VNM-rationality, paranoid calibration game

Meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Fun and Games

0 rocurley 12 May 2016 08:02PM

Discussion article for the meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Fun and Games

WHEN: 16 May 2016 06:15:39PM (-0700)

WHERE: 1597 Howard St. San Francisco, CA

We'll be meeting to hang out and play games!

You can call 301-458-0764 to be let in.

Discussion article for the meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Fun and Games

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