So. Inevitably after a plane crash a discussion comes up where someone may say that they're worried about flying now, and someone else pulls out the statistic that driving to the airport is more dangerous than flying. I think this reasoning is basically correct on the long-term, but not appropriate in the short-term.
Suppose it's the day after flight MH370 mysteriously disappeared. Information is extremely sketchy. You're about to get on a similar plane, operated by the same airliner, taking off from the same airport flying the same route. Should you get on the plane? That is, are you wrong to worry more than usual when we have no idea what happened to MH370? I would say no. The complete disappearance of flight MH370 without warning and without a trace the day before says **update your priors** at least for the short-term.
I think you're right.
It's because we have no idea what happened that I would worry more than usual. It's not that we had no information, but that the reams of information we had wasn't adding up. Airliners are known as targets to attack by hostile agents, and a mystery disappearance seems more likely caused by an intelligent agent than unthinking causes. Intelligent agents will hit and hit again before their means of attack are found out and countered.