Cross Posted at the EA Forum
At Event Horizon (a Rationalist/Effective Altruist house in Berkeley) my roommates yesterday were worried about Slate Star Codex. Their worries also apply to the Effective Altruism Forum, so I'll extend them.
The Problem:
Lesswrong was for many years the gravitational center for young rationalists worldwide, and it permits posting by new users, so good new ideas had a strong incentive to emerge.
With the rise of Slate Star Codex, the incentive for new users to post content on Lesswrong went down. Posting at Slate Star Codex is not open, so potentially great bloggers are not incentivized to come up with their ideas, but only to comment on the ones there.
The Effective Altruism forum doesn't have that particular problem. It is however more constrained in terms of what can be posted there. It is after all supposed to be about Effective Altruism.
We thus have three different strong attractors for the large community of people who enjoy reading blog posts online and are nearby in idea space.
Possible Solutions:
(EDIT: By possible solutions I merely mean to say "these are some bad solutions I came up with in 5 minutes, and the reason I'm posting them here is because if I post bad solutions, other people will be incentivized to post better solutions)
If Slate Star Codex became an open blog like Lesswrong, more people would consider transitioning from passive lurkers to actual posters.
If the Effective Altruism Forum got as many readers as Lesswrong, there could be two gravity centers at the same time.
If the moderation and self selection of Main was changed into something that attracts those who have been on LW for a long time, and discussion was changed to something like Newcomers discussion, LW could go back to being the main space, with a two tier system (maybe one modulated by karma as well).
The Past:
In the past there was Overcoming Bias, and Lesswrong in part became a stronger attractor because it was more open. Eventually lesswrongers migrated from Main to Discussion, and from there to Slate Star Codex, 80k blog, Effective Altruism forum, back to Overcoming Bias, and Wait But Why.
It is possible that Lesswrong had simply exerted it's capacity.
It is possible that a new higher tier league was needed to keep post quality high.
A Suggestion:
I suggest two things should be preserved:
Interesting content being created by those with more experience and knowledge who have interacted in this memespace for longer (part of why Slate Star Codex is powerful), and
The opportunity (and total absence of trivial inconveniences) for new people to try creating their own new posts.
If these two properties are kept, there is a lot of value to be gained by everyone.
The Status Quo:
I feel like we are living in a very suboptimal blogosphere. On LW, Discussion is more read than Main, which means what is being promoted to Main is not attractive to the people who are actually reading Lesswrong. The top tier quality for actually read posting is dominated by one individual (a great one, but still), disincentivizing high quality posts by other high quality people. The EA Forum has high quality posts that go unread because it isn't the center of attention.
Hey all,
As the admin of the effective altruism forum, it seems potentially useful to chip in here, or at least to let everyone know that I'm aware of and interested in this kind of conversation, since it seems like mostly everything that needs to has already been said.
The statement of the problem - online rationalist discourse is more fractured than is optimal - seems plausible to me.
I think that SSC and Scott's blogging persona is becoming quite a bit bigger than LessWrong curently is - it's got to the stage where he's writing articles that are getting thousands of shares, republished in the New Statesman, etc. I think SSC's solo blogging is striking a winning formula and shouldn't be changed.
For the EA Forum, the risk has always been that it would merely fracture existing discussion rather than generating anew any of its own. People usually think enough about how their project could become a new competing standard because they have a big glorious vision of how it would be. The people who are enthusiastic enough to start a project tend to be way out on the bell curve in terms of estimating how successful it is likely to be, so it can be unthinkable that it would end up as 'just another project' like the others (e.g. Standards: https://xkcd.com/927/). I thought about this a lot when starting the forum, and despite the fact that significant effort has been put into promoting it to a clear existing target community, this is still a plausible objection to the forum.
That's why I'm sceptical of the idea of creating new centres of gravity on subreddits. If the EA Forum is only uniting somewhat more than it's fracturing, then it's unlikely that a subreddit would do so. Why would a subreddit fare so much better at centralising discussion than LessWrong, the userbase that it's directly trying to cannibalise, and which has been a supremely popular blog over multiple years? It's so unlikely that it's simply not going to happen.
As for the forum, it's been growing slowly yet persistently, the output of content is going well, and the discourse is more constructive and action-oriented than one might have hoped for. Overall, I think it's having a centralising effect on EA discussion moreso than a fracturing one, and a constructive effect on EA activity moreso than just addicting people to nonproductive discussion. Since the growth is good so far, the hope is that as it continues, it will attract more members from outside of existing communities. If the growth trajectory starts to reverse itself, then we'd have to revisit some of these questions, but essentially, so far, so good. Incremental updates are to be made, but not any complete overhaul.
LessWrong also has significant value as it is.
So what does that leave? My initial thoughts would be:
The overall mass of people thinking about Rationality, x-risk and effective altruism seems to be growing, though, which is good news, so this kind of discussion is not a crisis talk. Still, it does seem like an important discussion to have. Happy as always for comments and criticism.
I wonder if we should be distinguishing between essays and discussions here.
The subreddit might end up fracturing discussions by adding a new place to comment, but unifying essays by adding a place to find them without needing to subscribe to everybody's personal blog.