If there's a causal chain from c to d to e, then d causally depends on c, and e causally depends on d, so if c were to not occur, d would not occur, and if d were to not occur, e would not occur
On Lewis's account of counterfactuals, this isn't true, i.e. causal dependence is non-transitive. Hence, he defines causation as the transitive closure of causal dependence.
Lewis' semantics
Let W be a set of worlds. A proposition is characterised by the subset A⊆W of worlds in which the proposition is true.
Moreover, assume each world w∈W induces an ordering ≤w over worlds, where w1≤ww2 means that world w1 is closer to w than w2. Informally, if the actual world is w, then w1 is a smaller deviation than w2. We assume w′≤ww⟹w′=w, i.e. no world is closer to the actual world than the actual world.
For each w∈W, a "neighbourhood" around w is a downwards-closed set of the preorder (W,≤w). That is, a neighbourhood around w is some set N such that w∈N and for all w′∈N and w′′∈W, if w′′≤ww′ then w′′∈N. Intuitively, if a neighbourhood around w contains some world w′ then it contains all worlds closer to wthan w′. Let Nw denote the neighbourhoods of w∈W.
Negation
Let Ac denote the proposition "A is not true". This is defined by the complement subset W∖A.
Counterfactuals
We can define counterfactuals as follows. Given two propositions A and B, let A?B denote the proposition "were A to happen then B would've happened". If we consider A,B⊆W as subsets, then we define A?B as the subset {w∈W∣A=∅, or for some N∈Nw,∅≠A∩N⊆B∩N}. That's a mouthful, but basically, A?B is true at some world w if
(1) "A is possible" is globally false, i.e. A=∅
(2) or "A is possible and A→B is necessary" is locally true, i.e. true in some neighbourhood N∈Nω.
Intuitively, to check whether the proposition "were A to occur then B would've occurred" is true at w, we must search successively larger neighbourhoods around w until we find a neighbourhood containing an A-world, and then check that all A-worlds are B-worlds in that neighbourhood. If we don't find any A-worlds, then we also count that as success.
Causal dependence
Let A⇝B denote the proposition "B causally depends on A". This is defined as the subset (A?B)∩(Ac?Bc)
Nontransitivity of causal dependence
We can see that (−?−) is not a transitive relation. Imagine W={0,1,2,3} with the ordering ≤0 given by 1≤02≤03. Then {3}⇝{2,3} and {2,3}⇝{2} but not {3}⇝{2}.
Informal counterexample
Imagine I'm in a casino, I have million-to-one odds of winning small and billion-to-one odds of winning big.
- Winning something causally depends on winning big:
- Were I to win big, then I would've won something. (Trivial.)
- Were I to not win big, then I would've not won something. (Because winning nothing is more likely than winning small.)
- Winning small causally depends on winning something:
- Were I win something, then I would've won small. (Because winning small is more likely than winning big.)
- Were I to not win something, then I would've not won small. (Trivial.)
- Winning small doesn't causally depend on winning big:
- Were I to win big, then I would've won small. (WRONG.)
- Were I to not win big, then I would've not won small. (Because winning nothing is more likely than winning small.)
tbh, Lewis's account of counterfactual is a bit defective, compared with (e.g.) Pearl's