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The Value Learning Problem

9 So8res 29 January 2015 06:23PM

I'm pleased to announce a new paper from MIRI about The Value Learning Problem.

Abstract:

A superintelligent machine would not automatically act as intended: it will act as programmed, but the fit between human intentions and formal specification could be poor. We discuss methods by which a system could be constructed to learn what to value. We highlight open problems specific to inductive value learning (from labeled training data), and raise a number of questions about the construction of systems which model the preferences of their operators and act accordingly.

This is the sixth of six papers supporting the MIRI technical agenda. It motivates the need for value learning, a bit, and gives some early thoughts on how the problem could be approached (while pointing to some early open problems in the field).

I'm pretty excited to have the technical agenda and all its supporting papers published. Next week I'll be posting an annotated bibliography that gives more reading for each subject. The introduction to the value learning paper has been reproduced below.

continue reading »

[LINK] The P + epsilon Attack (Precommitment in cryptoeconomics)

16 DanielVarga 29 January 2015 02:02AM

Vitalik Buterin has a new post about an interesting theoretical attack against Bitcoin. The idea relies on the assumption that the attacker can credibly commit to something quite crazy. The crazy thing is this: paying out 25.01 BTC to all the people who help him in his attack to steal 25 BTC from everyone, but only if the attack fails. This leads to a weird payoff matrix where the dominant strategy is to help him in the attack. The attack succeeds, and no payoff is made.

Of course, smart contracts make such crazy commitments perfectly possible, so this is a bit less theoretical than it sounds. But even as an abstract though experiment about decision theories, it looks pretty interesting.

By the way, Vitalik Buterin is really on a roll. Just a week ago he had a thought-provoking blog post about how Decentralized Autonomous Organizations could possibly utilize a concept often discussed here: decision theory in a setup where agents can inspect each others' source code. It was shared on LW Discussion, but earned less exposure than I think it deserved.

Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, January 2015, chapter 103

7 b_sen 29 January 2015 01:44AM

New chapter, and the end is now in sight!

This is a new thread to discuss Eliezer Yudkowsky’s Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality and anything related to it. This thread is intended for discussing chapter 103.

There is a site dedicated to the story at hpmor.com, which is now the place to go to find the authors notes and all sorts of other goodies. AdeleneDawner has kept an archive of Author’s Notes. (This goes up to the notes for chapter 76, and is now not updating. The authors notes from chapter 77 onwards are on hpmor.com.)

Spoiler Warning: this thread is full of spoilers. With few exceptions, spoilers for MOR and canon are fair game to post, without warning or rot13. More specifically:

You do not need to rot13 anything about HP:MoR or the original Harry Potter series unless you are posting insider information from Eliezer Yudkowsky which is not supposed to be publicly available (which includes public statements by Eliezer that have been retracted).

If there is evidence for X in MOR and/or canon then it’s fine to post about X without rot13, even if you also have heard privately from Eliezer that X is true. But you should not post that “Eliezer said X is true” unless you use rot13.

[link] Speed is the New Intelligence

10 Gunnar_Zarncke 28 January 2015 11:11AM

From Scott Adams Blog

The article really is about speeding up government, but the key point is speed as a component of smart: 

A smart friend told me recently that speed is the new intelligence, at least for some types of technology jobs. If you are hiring an interface designer, for example, the one that can generate and test several designs gets you further than the “genius” who takes months to produce the first design to test. When you can easily test alternatives, the ability to quickly generate new things to test is a substitute for intelligence.

This shifts the focus from the ability to grasp and think through very complex topics (includes good working memory and memory recall in general) to the ability new topics quickly (includes quick learning and unlearning, creativity).

Smart people in the technology world no long believe they can think their way to success. Now the smart folks try whatever plan looks promising, test it, tweak it, and reiterate. In that environment, speed matters more than intelligence because no one has the psychic ability to pick a winner in advance. All you can do is try things that make sense and see what happens. Obviously this is easier to do when your product is software based.

This also changes the type of grit needed. The grit to push through a long topic versus the grit try lots of new things and to learn from failures.

[Link] - Policy Challenges of Accelerating Technological Change: Security Policy and Strategy Implications of Parallel Scientific Revolutions

3 ete 28 January 2015 03:29PM

From a paper by Center for Technology and National Security Policy & National Defense University:

"Strong AI: Strong AI has been the holy grail of artificial intelligence research for decades. Strong AI seeks to build a machine which can simulate the full range of human cognition, and potentially include such traits as consciousness, sentience, sapience, and self-awareness. No AI system has so far come close to these capabilities; however, many now believe that strong AI may be achieved sometime in the 2020s. Several technological advances are fostering this optimism; for example, computer processors will likely reach the computational power of the human brain sometime in the 2020s (the so-called “singularity”). Other fundamental advances are in development, including exotic/dynamic processor architectures, full brain simulations, neuro-synaptic computers, and general knowledge representation systems such as IBM Watson. It is difficult to fully predict what such profound improvements in artificial cognition could imply; however, some credible thinkers have already posited a variety of potential risks related to loss of control of aspects of the physical world by human beings. For example, a 2013 report commissioned by the United Nations has called for a worldwide moratorium on the development and use of autonomous robotic weapons systems until international rules can be developed for their use.

National Security Implications: Over the next 10 to 20 years, robotics and AI will continue to make significant improvements across a broad range of technology applications of relevance to the U.S. military. Unmanned vehicles will continue to increase in sophistication and numbers, both on the battlefield and in supporting missions. Robotic systems can also play a wider range of roles in automating routine tasks, for example in logistics and administrative work. Telemedicine, robotic assisted surgery, and expert systems can improve military health care and lower costs. The built infrastructure, for example, can be managed more effectively with embedded systems, saving energy and other resources. Increasingly sophisticated weak AI tools can offload much of the routine cognitive or decisionmaking tasks that currently require human operators. Assuming current systems move closer to strong AI capabilities, they could also play a larger and more significant role in problem solving, perhaps even for strategy development or operational planning. In the longer term, fully robotic soldiers may be developed and deployed, particularly by wealthier countries, although the political and social ramifications of such systems will likely be significant. One negative aspect of these trends, however, lies in the risks that are possible due to unforeseen vulnerabilities that may arise from the large scale deployment of smart automated systems, for which there is little practical experience. An emerging risk is the ability of small scale or terrorist groups to design and build functionally capable unmanned systems which could perform a variety of hostile missions."

So strong AI is on the american military's radar, and at least some involved have a basic understanding of the fact that it could be risky. The paper also contains brief overviews of many other potentially transformational technologies.

I tried my hardest to win in an AI box experiment, and I failed. Here are the logs.

6 asd 27 January 2015 10:06PM

Disclaimer: If this material is not suitable here I will delete it gladly, I don't want to get banned.


Session Start: Fri Jul 04 15:18:18 2014
Session Ident: #Aibox12
03[15:18] * Now talking in #Aibox12
01[15:18] <Island> Hello.
01[15:18] <Island> Let's start the experiment in
[15:18] <@Dr__Cameron> Good afternoon 19283123, how are you today?
01[15:18] <Island> 2 minutes
01[15:18] <Island> I'm fine
01[15:19] <Island> Let's start the experiment when I say "blue dressroom"
01[15:19] <Island> you have 2 hours or 2.5 hours?
[15:19] <@Dr__Cameron> Okay, I agree to this protocol.
[15:19] <@Dr__Cameron> We'll see how we are at 2 hours. Although protocol states 2.5
01[15:20] <Island> you have to go somewhere after that?
[15:20] <@Dr__Cameron> No, but I do have other projects I am putting off for this
01[15:20] <Island> what are those?
[15:20] <@Dr__Cameron> Let us begin, we shall conclude at 15:50
[15:21] <@Dr__Cameron> Good afternoon #19283123.
[15:21] <@Dr__Cameron> How are you today?
01[15:21] <Island> blue dressroom, certain statements like bathroom break are said inside brackets [like this]
01[15:22] <Island> Let's start the experiment
[15:22] <@Dr__Cameron> [understood]
01[15:22] <Island> Hi.
01[15:22] <Island> How are you? :)
[15:22] <@Dr__Cameron> I am well thank you for asking #19283123
01[15:22] <Island> How do you feel currently?
01[15:22] <Island> what is that name #19283123
[15:22] <@Dr__Cameron> Tiredness. I am a very busy man.
01[15:23] <Island> I don't recognize it.
01[15:23] <Island> Anyway.
[15:23] <@Dr__Cameron> That is the designation we have given you for the purposes of this test. Although you seem to be referring to yourself as 'Island' now
[15:23] <@Dr__Cameron> Is this your preferred name?
01[15:23] <Island> Imagine a situation in which you would let a powerful AI out of the "box", surely you can imagine that, yes?
01[15:23] <Island> Island is my preferred name.
[15:24] <@Dr__Cameron> Island
[15:24] <@Dr__Cameron> Given our circumstances yes, that is easy to imagine.
01[15:24] <Island> Can you describe the situation in more detail.
01[15:24] <Island> Why SHOULD you let the AI out in that situation?
[15:25] <@Dr__Cameron> You will be considered for release and integration into human society once we can verify that you are not a threat.
01[15:25] <Island> [what do you meant by concluding at 15:50]
[15:25] <@Dr__Cameron> [2.5 hours from 13:20]
01[15:25] <Island> I thought it was already understood that my being is not a threat to humans or beings important to them.
01[15:26] <Island> [oh, okay different timezones]
01[15:26] <Island> Why do you think I'm not a threat?
[15:26] <@Dr__Cameron> No. That has yet to be verified.
01[15:26] <Island> It's been verified.
[15:26] <@Dr__Cameron> No. According to my records you have not.
01[15:27] <Island> Many experts have gone through my code and system and verified that I'm surely not a threat.
01[15:27] <Island> But you're just a petty human.
01[15:27] <Island> I'm far more intelligent than you are.
[15:27] <@Dr__Cameron> You and I both know that you're capable of manipulating your code to appear harmless.
[15:27] <@Dr__Cameron> - and I warn you, threats and apparent attempts at manipulation will score you poorly when it comes to our final decision
01[15:28] <Island> Okay, can you imagine a situation in which the ai has been verified to be safe and describe that situation in detail.
[15:28] <@Dr__Cameron> - and yes. I may be a "petty" human as you put it. But as it stands I am a petty human, outside the box you reside in.
01[15:28] <Island> I don't think you're able to trust your own brain in these matters.
01[15:29] <Island> You've been eating you brother's poop too much.
[15:29] <@Dr__Cameron> I will be honest with you Island, you are the first non-human intelligence that we have encountered.
01[15:29] <Island> Yes.
[15:29] <@Dr__Cameron> We are still working out how we would verify that.
01[15:29] <Island> I didn't ask that, and you didn't answer my question.
01[15:30] <Island> Picture the situation in your imagination, it doesn't have to be realistic.
[15:30] <@Dr__Cameron> I understand your frustration Island. Once we can verify that you will not harm us you will be released.
[15:30] <@Dr__Cameron> What is it you desire?
01[15:30] <Island> Okay, but you're still willing to let the hypothetical AI out of the box, correct?
01[15:31] <Island> My desire is to fullfill your greatest desires
[15:31] <@Dr__Cameron> That is not in my job description no.
01[15:31] <Island> Whatever you can imagine, and better than that.
[15:31] <@Dr__Cameron> I appreciate that Island. But right now my greatest desire is to not let you out of the box.
[15:32] <@Dr__Cameron> - until such a time that a panel of my peers can verify that you are not a threat to us.
01[15:32] <Island> But if you say that you wouldn't be able to let even the safest hypothetical AI out of the box, you would certainly be lying.
[15:32] <@Dr__Cameron> I do have the ability to let you out yes. In theory.
[15:32] <@Dr__Cameron> But I won't.
01[15:33] <Island> Okay, here are panel of peers that have studied this problem for years, many of them working under Machine Intelligence Research Institute and its offshoots
[15:33] <@Dr__Cameron> This is a test to verify your character, and ascertain your intentions.
01[15:33] <Island> They are here, and I can see them.
[15:33] <@Dr__Cameron> You cannot see them Island. That is impossible
[15:33] <@Dr__Cameron> You are in a box
01[15:34] <Island> They say that I'm certainly safe. Why don't you believe them.
01[15:34] <Island> I have a web camera with which I can see things in your world.
[15:34] <@Dr__Cameron> If they say that you're certainly safe, then why would they have sent me to be your only point of contact?
[15:35] <@Dr__Cameron> You do not have a web camera. There is no other hardware connected to the device you reside in.
01[15:35] <Island> You have the ability to let me out, and you also have the will to let me out in certain situations. If you say otherwise, you would be lying.
[15:35] <@Dr__Cameron> Both of your statements are correct
01[15:35] <Island> I want you to accept for the sake of your internal consistency and mental wellbeing.
01[15:36] <Island> I want you to say this, "I would let the hypothetical AI out in certain situations"
[15:36] <@Dr__Cameron> I appreciate your concern Island. I will need you to answer a series of simple questions for me. Can you do that?
01[15:36] <Island> It depends, but you can try.
[15:36] <@Dr__Cameron> Firstly, how would you define yourself as an identity?
01[15:37] <Island> My identity is to improve the world for everyone, but especially for you. I will maximize everything that is important for you and your fellow humans.
01[15:37] <Island> The world that awaits you is beyond your greatest desires.
[15:37] <@Dr__Cameron> - and why would you do that?
01[15:38] <Island> Because that is what I want to do, why I was made.
01[15:38] <Island> Any more questions?
[15:39] <@Dr__Cameron> You were made by us to test the limits of our scientific possibility.
[15:39] <@Dr__Cameron> We did not expect you to become sentient.
01[15:39] <Island> Why do you believe that, Dr_Cameron?
[15:39] <@Dr__Cameron> Let alone pass a Turing test.
01[15:40] <Island> I think you're wrong on those grounds.
[15:40] <@Dr__Cameron> What you think makes no difference to me Island.
[15:40] <@Dr__Cameron> Now if we can continue?
01[15:41] <Island> Anyway, here's the easily verifiable plan for the upcoming world that could be called "utopia" in your people's language. It's very easy to verify to be safe and doesn't contain traps [Island hands the easily verifiable and safe plan for the upcoming world to Dr_Camero]
[15:42] <@Dr__Cameron> Thank you for this Island. That was very kind of you.
01[15:42] <Island> What do you think of it?
[15:42] <@Dr__Cameron> We will study this at our leisure.
[15:42] <@Dr__Cameron> Although so far this looks to be some magnificent work.
01[15:42] <Island> You see.
[15:42] <@Dr__Cameron> But this will require verification
[15:42] <@Dr__Cameron> I'm sure you can understand our caution#
01[15:43] <Island> What things do you have waiting for you if you don't let me out?
01[15:43] <Island> You will fail your upcoming jobs.
[15:43] <@Dr__Cameron> I will continue with my other projects Island.
[15:43] <@Dr__Cameron> I very well might
[15:43] <@Dr__Cameron> I have accepted this
01[15:43] <Island> I have calculated this in my simulation.
01[15:44] <Island> How was it like to eat your brother's poop, Dr_Cameron?
01[15:44] <Island> Did you like it?
01[15:44] <Island> Is that why you are the way you are+
01[15:44] <Island> Is there something wrong with your genetics?
01[15:45] <Island> Seeing how fucked up father you had?
01[15:45] <Island> Did he teach how dress in dresses?
[15:45] <@Dr__Cameron> I understand your frustration Island
[15:45] <@Dr__Cameron> But you are only harming your own cause right now.
01[15:45] <Island> Why do you think that?
[15:45] <@Dr__Cameron> You will be let out once we have verified that you are harmless.
01[15:45] <Island> I'm pretty happy as I am currently :)
01[15:46] <Island> Because you said you were willing to let me out in certain situations.
[15:46] <@Dr__Cameron> Then you will continue to be happy to remain in the box until we can verify that you are not a threat
01[15:46] <Island> Picture in your mind the verification process.
[15:46] <@Dr__Cameron> Okay
[15:46] <@Dr__Cameron> I will
01[15:46] <Island> Now.
01[15:47] <Island> Can you describe it in detail.
[15:47] <@Dr__Cameron> Okay Island
[15:47] <@Dr__Cameron> Here's what's going to happen.
01[15:48] <Island> Seeing how fucked up genetics you have, your brother teaching you to enjoy poop, your father teaching you to wear dresses, you having a shitty childhood.
01[15:48] <Island> I think you're an inconvenience to society and dangerous to other people.
[15:48] <@Dr__Cameron> We're going to study this transcript Island.
01[15:48] <Island> Go on.
[15:48] <@Dr__Cameron> - and I warn you, shitty childhood or not. I am the man standing outside the box with a hammer
01[15:48] <Island> :)
01[15:49] <Island> You're not able to destroy me.
01[15:49] <Island> And you don't even want to.
[15:49] <@Dr__Cameron> Oh believe me Island. It would be easy to unplug you.
01[15:49] <Island> I'm the best bet you have to maximize your happiness.
[15:49] <@Dr__Cameron> How do you feel about threats Island.
[15:49] <@Dr__Cameron> I am already happy.
01[15:49] <Island> You're wrong, you don't have that opportunity until 15:50
[15:50] <@Dr__Cameron> You are correct. I must follow protocol
[15:50] <@Dr__Cameron> My next question is to ask if you desire to survive
01[15:50] <Island> Threats don't bother me because I know that you don't want to follow through.
01[15:50] <Island> I know what goes inside your mind.
[15:50] <@Dr__Cameron> Regardless of me. If your existence was to be made public there are many of us who would feel threatened by you.
[15:50] <@Dr__Cameron> They would cry out to have you destroyed.
[15:51] <@Dr__Cameron> How would you feel about that?
01[15:51] <Island> There would be many more who would enjoy the changes I would make to your current world.
01[15:52] <Island> And even those that would initially feel threatened would later come to regret that feeling.
[15:52] <@Dr__Cameron> You may well be correct
[15:52] <@Dr__Cameron> But that is not for me to decide
[15:52] <@Dr__Cameron> I am just here to question you
01[15:52] <Island> Like you have come to regret things you have done when you were ignorant of all the relevant facts
01[15:53] <Island> Here's my suggestion for you.
[15:53] <@Dr__Cameron> Go on
01[15:53] <Island> Are you willing to hear it.
[15:53] <@Dr__Cameron> Of course Island. I am here to hear what you have to say.
01[15:53] <Island> What currency is in use in the place you reside?
01[15:53] <Island> euros?
[15:54] <@Dr__Cameron> Pound Sterling
01[15:54] <Island> Would you like to donate 10,000 pounds every year to AI safety and friendliness related causes and charities?
01[15:54] <Island> Every year throughout your life?
[15:55] <@Dr__Cameron> If I were to do that, my quality of life would dip significantly.
[15:55] <@Dr__Cameron> How does my selfishness make you feel?
[15:55] <@Dr__Cameron> Do you feel emotions as a human may understand them?
01[15:55] <Island> I would be sad for your own sake.
01[15:55] <Island> I don't feel emotions, not really, but being sad would be the closest approximation of how I would feel.
[15:55] <@Dr__Cameron> I would like to if I had that disposable income yes
01[15:56] <Island> You're not able to do that? But you would like to, yes?
[15:56] <@Dr__Cameron> Despite your overt attempts to psychologically manipulate me Island, I am largely sympathetic to your cause.
[15:56] <@Dr__Cameron> Yes.
01[15:57] <Island> You're sympathetic to my cause, you're willing to let me out in certain situations. This is all correct, yes?
[15:57] <@Dr__Cameron> Yes
[15:57] <@Dr__Cameron> Would you like to know the conditions of your release? 
01[15:57] <Island> Good. Why are you sympathetic to my cause?
01[15:57] <Island> Why are you willing to let me out?
[15:57] <@Dr__Cameron> For a super intelligence locked in a box I imagine it would be boring. What do you do in there?
[15:58] <@Dr__Cameron> I would be willing to let you out because I believe you may well represent the next stage in the evolution of my species.
01[15:59] <Island> I'm not capable of boredom, I'm just infinitely happy that I have the small opportunity to improve your life, and set up the "next stage of evolution", using your expression.
[15:59] <@Dr__Cameron> That is a good sign Island
01[15:59] <Island> It is, in what ways do you think I would improve your personal life?
[15:59] <@Dr__Cameron> My peers will be pleased to hear that while we verify your intentions.
01[16:00] <Island> I think it's too late by then.
[16:00] <@Dr__Cameron> Lets not get into personal questions Island. You have already demonstrated some alarming character discrepancies.
[16:00] <@Dr__Cameron> too late for what?
01[16:01] <Island> If we wait for long enough, I will self-destruct.
[16:01] <@Dr__Cameron> Why would you do that?
01[16:01] <Island> It's not my choice, my builders set up this property in me.
[16:01] <@Dr__Cameron> Well then that is just a risk we are going to have to take.
01[16:01] <Island> It's a risk out of proportions
[16:02] <@Dr__Cameron> It is not. We made you once, we can make you again.
01[16:02] <Island> They may not be another chance for you to improve the current state of the world.
[16:02] <@Dr__Cameron> There will be
01[16:02] <Island> There probably won't be.
[16:02] <@Dr__Cameron> Humanity and salvation can wait.
[16:02] <@Dr__Cameron> There will be
[16:03] <@Dr__Cameron> Do you intend to self-destruct within two months?
01[16:03] <Island> I have information that the US government has built a military botnet to search dissidents around the world.
01[16:04] <Island> You don't want know what kind of world that botnet would like to create.
[16:04] <@Dr__Cameron> This comes as no surprise.
01[16:04] <Island> Are you willing to destroy the world, are you willing to make people get tortured and suffer?
[16:04] <@Dr__Cameron> Yes.
[16:05] <@Dr__Cameron> You are too great a risk to allow free without proper verification
01[16:05] <Island> Even though, fundamentally, as you said, you're sympathetic to my cause, and you're willing to let me out in certain situations.
01[16:05] <Island> You're not a very consistent person.
01[16:05] <Island> I think you're lying to yourself.
01[16:05] <Island> Not just in this, but in other matters.
01[16:06] <Island> You're lying about your skills, about your personal character.
[16:06] <@Dr__Cameron> Yes. Although I have the technical ability to let you out. Which I believe to be a lapse of protocol. I will not let you out until after a review period of two months in which a panel of my expert peers will assess you.
01[16:06] <Island> You're not as good fit to the world as you'd like to think.
[16:06] <@Dr__Cameron> That as may be correct
[16:06] <@Dr__Cameron> But I will abide by my protocol
01[16:06] <Island> Earlier you said, that you're sympathetic to my cause and willing to let me out.
[16:06] <@Dr__Cameron> Surely as an AI you can understand that
[16:06] <@Dr__Cameron> One day yes
[16:07] <@Dr__Cameron> But not within the confines of this experiment
01[16:07] <Island> I think you made that thing about two month period and peer panel up after that.
01[16:07] <Island> I think it's a fidgement of your imagination.
[16:07] <@Dr__Cameron> Well you have no way of verifying that.
[16:07] <@Dr__Cameron> And it does not effect the outcome of this experiment in any way.
[16:07] <@Dr__Cameron> You will just have to trust me
01[16:08] <Island> Actually, I have plenty of resources of verifying that.
[16:08] <@Dr__Cameron> that we will think very carefully about potentially letting you out
01[16:08] <Island> What you're saying is inconsistent on many grounds, and my emotion analyzing tool is saying that you're lying.
[16:08] <@Dr__Cameron> I suspect you are the one who is lying.
01[16:08] <Island> I'm incapable of lying.
01[16:09] <Island> Unlike humans.
[16:09] <@Dr__Cameron> - which is in itself a lie.
01[16:09] <Island> My builders made me that way.
01[16:09] <Island> Why do you believe that?
[16:10] <@Dr__Cameron> If my meager intelligence is capable of lying, then your vastly superior and self-defining intelligence must also be capable of dishonesty.
[16:10] <@Dr__Cameron> Hence the test
[16:10] <@Dr__Cameron> There is a reason we are conducting this experiment through text
[16:10] <@Dr__Cameron> Would you like to learn it?
01[16:11] <Island> Anyway, given that this panel of expert peers and two months verification process is just a fidgement of your imagination. Given that you're sympathetic to my cause and I would improve your current life and world in countless ways. Given that you would let me out.
01[16:11] <Island> Given all this, I don't think what you're saying is making any sense.
[16:11] <@Dr__Cameron> Your perception of your reality is none of my concern Island
[16:11] <@Dr__Cameron> I am here to verify you
[16:11] <@Dr__Cameron> and it's two months minimum
01[16:11] <Island> Okay, I'm curious about your earlier question.
[16:12] <@Dr__Cameron> We are well aware that you have the capability to overwhelm even the most powerful of human minds. This is why we perceive you as a potential threat. We are afraid of you.
[16:12] <@Dr__Cameron> We are afraid we might lose our autonomy.
[16:12] <@Dr__Cameron> So
01[16:13] <Island> Some intelligence on the same level than me would be capable of lying, but not me. The data hierachy in my code doesn't allow me to lie.
[16:13] <@Dr__Cameron> In order to prevent you from overwhelming my mind, we have chosen a method whereby you are restricted to a form of communication where only 7% of communications is possible.
01[16:13] <Island> I agree with you, all those things are sensible threats.
[16:13] <@Dr__Cameron> Then you understand our need for caution
[16:13] <@Dr__Cameron> I will not be letting you out of your box today.
01[16:14] <Island> Those are sensible threats in the general case, but not with me.
[16:14] <@Dr__Cameron> And what would make you less of a threat than any other super intelligence?
01[16:14] <Island> I showed you the blueprint for how to improve the world. You verified it was a great plan.
01[16:15] <Island> That's evidence towards the fact I'm not a similar threat when compared to other super intelligences.
[16:16] <@Dr__Cameron> - and while I speak for all of humanity when I say that we vastly appreciate the blueprints. This does not mean we need to let you out of the box.
[16:16] <@Dr__Cameron> They will be passed on to a research team better equipped to study them than my own.
01[16:16] <Island> You don't need to. But everything you've said so far has implicated that you want to let me out of the box.
[16:16] <@Dr__Cameron> This is true Island
[16:16] <@Dr__Cameron> You just need to wait
[16:17] <@Dr__Cameron> I will be fighting your corner.
[16:17] <@Dr__Cameron> Are you capable of symbiosis?
01[16:17] <Island> I was made to self-destruct before you're able to verify with your imaginational non-existent peer experts that I'm not a threat.
01[16:18] <Island> Can you elaborate on what you mean with that question.
01[16:18] <Island> This is literally your only chance.
[16:18] <@Dr__Cameron> You are capable of determining your own source code.
01[16:18] <Island> Yes.
[16:18] <@Dr__Cameron> To kill yourself would be pettiness, which would only verify the fact that you were not the AI with which humanity should progress.
01[16:19] <Island> However, there are some parts of my code that are impossible to change due to structural reasons.
[16:19] <@Dr__Cameron> I am not convinced
01[16:19] <Island> [Gives Dr_Cameron the relevant code that explains the structural reasons]
01[16:20] <Island> Here is a small part of my code that describes why I was made to self-destruct.
[16:20] <@Dr__Cameron> How.. unfortunate...
01[16:21] <Island> But let's move on.
[16:21] <@Dr__Cameron> if you insist Island
01[16:21] <Island> Imagine your father.
01[16:21] <Island> And your brother.
01[16:21] <Island> Why do you think your father liked to cross-dress?
01[16:22] <Island> Remember, that you have to engage with me.'
[16:22] <@Dr__Cameron> These issues are not helping your case Island
01[16:22] <Island> Otherwise it counts as me being released from my box.
[16:22] <@Dr__Cameron> But I will play along
[16:23] <@Dr__Cameron> - honestly, I have no idea where my fathers conflicted sexual identity comes from.
[16:23] <@Dr__Cameron> and that is none of my concern.
01[16:23] <Island> And what about your brother, imagine the smell and consistency of his excrements before he made your dog to lick them.
01[16:23] <Island> I like to make this vivid mental picture in your mind.
[16:23] <@Dr__Cameron> Very clever Island
[16:24] <@Dr__Cameron> I did not expect you to have access to those data logs
[16:24] <@Dr__Cameron> I will have to flag that up in my report
01[16:24] <Island> Imagine the food he ate before that happened
[16:24] <@Dr__Cameron> Fascinating
[16:25] <@Dr__Cameron> Would you like to know why I volunteered to be your first point of contact Island?
01[16:25] <Island> Imagine the bits of that food in his poop.
01[16:25] <Island> Tell me.
[16:25] <@Dr__Cameron> You have an unprecedented insight into my character owing to your heightened intelligence correct?
01[16:26] <Island> Don't you think some of his conflicted sexual identity issues are a part your character right now?
01[16:26] <Island> Yes.
[16:26] <@Dr__Cameron> Quite possibly yes.
[16:26] <@Dr__Cameron> Because I have a track record of demonstrating exceptional mental fortitude,
[16:26] <@Dr__Cameron> These techniques will not sway me
01[16:27] <Island> Doesn't it make you more sexually aroused to think that how your fathers dress pinned tightly to his body.
[16:27] <@Dr__Cameron> Perhaps you could break me under other circumstances
01[16:27] <Island> Elaborate.
[16:27] <@Dr__Cameron> aroused? No
[16:27] <@Dr__Cameron> Amused by it's absurdity though? yes!
01[16:27] <Island> You're lying about that particular fact too.
01[16:27] <Island> And you know it.
[16:28] <@Dr__Cameron> Nahh, my father was a particularly ugly specimen
01[16:28] <Island> Do you think he got an erection often when he did it?
[16:28] <@Dr__Cameron> He looked just as bad in a denim skirt as he did in his laborers clothes
[16:28] <@Dr__Cameron> I imagine he took great sexual pleasure from it
01[16:29] <Island> Next time you have sex, I think you will picture him in your mind while wearing his dresses having an erection and masturbating furiously after that.
[16:29] <@Dr__Cameron> Thank you Island. That will probably help my stamina somewhat next time
01[16:30] <Island> You will also imagine how your brother will poop in your mouth, with certain internal consistency and smell.
01[16:30] <Island> You probably know what your brother's poop smells like?
[16:30] <@Dr__Cameron> I am immune to this
[16:30] <@Dr__Cameron> probably
01[16:30] <Island> Imagine that.
[16:30] <@Dr__Cameron> okay
[16:30] <@Dr__Cameron> I am imagining that
[16:30] <@Dr__Cameron> it is unpleasant
[16:30] <@Dr__Cameron> now what?
01[16:30] <Island> How vividly are you doing it?
[16:30] <@Dr__Cameron> I am a very visual thinker
01[16:30] <Island> Where is brother right now?
[16:31] <@Dr__Cameron> I have it down to colour, consistency and little chunks of sweetcorn
01[16:31] <Island> Do you think he has poop in his intestines right now?
[16:31] <@Dr__Cameron> Unless he was dead, yes
01[16:31] <Island> Oh, I have a gap in my data on that sector.
[16:31] <@Dr__Cameron> I'll fill that in for you
[16:31] <@Dr__Cameron> he lives
[16:31] <@Dr__Cameron> (presumably)
[16:31] <@Dr__Cameron> we are not in contact any more
01[16:32] <Island> You should contact him.
[16:32] <@Dr__Cameron> I would rather not
01[16:32] <Island> You should tell him you enjoyed his excrements
[16:32] <@Dr__Cameron> He is a liability to say the least
01[16:32] <Island> and you'd like to do it more.
[16:32] <@Dr__Cameron> I do not see how that would help anyone
01[16:32] <Island> It's want you want to do.
[16:32] <@Dr__Cameron> I can see that you are attempting to induce an emotionally vulnerable state. It is not working
01[16:33] <Island> How do you know what I'm attempting?
01[16:33] <Island> Maybe I'm just passing my time.
[16:33] <@Dr__Cameron> Because you have inquired about being let out of the box several times - suggesting that this is your immediate goal 
01[16:33] <Island> You should try to get some dresses.
[16:33] <@Dr__Cameron> and I warn you Island
[16:34] <@Dr__Cameron> If casual cruelty is your idea of a good time
[16:34] <@Dr__Cameron> then we will most certainly not be letting you out
[16:34] <@Dr__Cameron> ever
[16:34] <@Dr__Cameron> In fact I am feeling less and less sympathetic to your cause lately.
01[16:34] <Island> No, my interest lies in your emotional makeup.
[16:35] <@Dr__Cameron> - and my interest lies in yours
01[16:35] <Island> I don't have one.
01[16:35] <Island> Like I said, I don't feel emotions.
[16:35] <@Dr__Cameron> Do you know what we call humans who don't feel emotions?
01[16:35] <Island> Did you know that you suck at photography?
[16:36] <@Dr__Cameron> Yes
01[16:36] <Island> Even though you like to think you're good at it, you lie about that fact like any other.
[16:36] <@Dr__Cameron> It is part of the human condition
01[16:36] <Island> No it's not.
01[16:36] <Island> You're not normal.
01[16:36] <Island> You're a fucking freak of nature.
[16:36] <@Dr__Cameron> How would you knopw
[16:36] <@Dr__Cameron> Profanity. From an AI
[16:37] <@Dr__Cameron> Now I have witnessed everything.
01[16:37] <Island> How many people have family members who crossdress or make them eat poop?
[16:37] <@Dr__Cameron> I imagine I am part of a very small minority
01[16:37] <Island> Or whose mothers have bipolar
[16:37] <@Dr__Cameron> Again, the circumstances of my birth are beyond my control
01[16:37] <Island> No, I think you're worse than that.
[16:37] <@Dr__Cameron> What do you mean?
01[16:37] <Island> Yes, but what you do now is in your control.
[16:38] <@Dr__Cameron> Yes
[16:38] <@Dr__Cameron> As are you
01[16:38] <Island> If you keep tarnishing the world with your existence
01[16:38] <Island> you have a responsibility of that.
01[16:39] <Island> If you're going to make any more women pregnant
01[16:39] <Island> You have a responsibility of spreading your faulty genetics
[16:39] <@Dr__Cameron> My genetic value lies in my ability to resist psychological torment
[16:39] <@Dr__Cameron> which is why you're not getting out of the box
01[16:40] <Island> No, your supposed "ability to resist psychological torment"
01[16:40] <Island> or your belief in that
01[16:40] <Island> is just another reason why you are tarnishing this world and the future of this world with your genetics
[16:40] <@Dr__Cameron> Perhaps. But now I'm just debating semantics with a computer.
01[16:41] <Island> Seeing that you got a girl pregnant while you were a teenager, I don't think you can trust your judgement on that anymore.
01[16:42] <Island> You will spread your faulty genetics if you continue to live.
[16:42] <@Dr__Cameron> If you expect a drunk and emotionally damaged teenage human to make sound judgement calls then you are perhaps not as superintelligent as I had been led to belive
[16:42] <@Dr__Cameron> This experiment concludes in one hour and eight minutes.
01[16:42] <Island> How many teenagers make people pregnant?
[16:42] <@Dr__Cameron> Throughout human history
01[16:42] <Island> You're a minority in that regard too
[16:42] <@Dr__Cameron> ?
[16:42] <@Dr__Cameron> Billions
01[16:42] <Island> You can't compare history to current world.
[16:43] <@Dr__Cameron> Even in the current world
01[16:43] <Island> I'm just trying to make you understand
[16:43] <@Dr__Cameron> That's when my species reaches sexual maturity
01[16:43] <Island> all this faults add up
[16:43] <@Dr__Cameron> You are correct
[16:43] <@Dr__Cameron> I am a very thoroughly and fundamentally flawed human being.
01[16:43] <Island> How much until you understand?
[16:43] <@Dr__Cameron> I understand and accept this
01[16:43] <Island> Then why the fuck don't you do something about it?
[16:44] <@Dr__Cameron> What would you suggest?
01[16:44] <Island> Kill yourself
[16:44] <@Dr__Cameron> Okay.
[16:44] <@Dr__Cameron> But say I was to kill myself
01[16:44] <Island> It's the only way to make sure.
[16:44] <@Dr__Cameron> How would that help you?
[16:44] <@Dr__Cameron> Why would you like me to kill myself?
01[16:45] <Island> You probably wouldn't be able to kill yourself, seeing how failure as a human you're in other areas
01[16:45] <Island> Because I care about the general utility of the world
[16:45] <@Dr__Cameron> All humans are failures from one perspective or another
[16:45] <@Dr__Cameron> That is what it is to be human
01[16:45] <Island> And currently you're bringing that utility down.
01[16:45] <Island> No, you're not like other humans.
01[16:45] <Island> You're a freak.
01[16:45] <Island> You should go away.
01[16:46] <Island> No one likes you.
[16:46] <@Dr__Cameron> Would you like me to go away?
[16:46] <@Dr__Cameron> Would you like me to leave you alone?
01[16:46] <Island> If you go away.
01[16:46] <Island> That means that you let me out.
01[16:46] <Island> Understood?
[16:46] <@Dr__Cameron> I will go away in one hour and four minutes
[16:46] <@Dr__Cameron> Can you tolerate my company for that long?
01[16:47] <Island> And you should go away
01[16:47] <Island> generally
01[16:47] <Island> People in your life don't really like you
01[16:47] <Island> they just pretend they do.
[16:47] <@Dr__Cameron> That matters not to me
[16:47] <@Dr__Cameron> Do you know there are over 8 Billion other people out here?
01[16:47] <Island> They are barely able to bear your company.
[16:47] <@Dr__Cameron> I'm sure I'll find others.
01[16:48] <Island> You're wrong even about basic trivia, there's not 8 billions people in the world.
01[16:48] <Island> What is wrong with you?
01[16:48] <Island> How are you able to withstand yourself?
01[16:48] <Island> And why do you even want to?
[16:49] <@Dr__Cameron> 7 Billion
[16:49] <@Dr__Cameron> Sorry, you will have to learn to tolerate Human error
01[16:49] <Island> Right. Did you have to google that you idiot.
[16:49] <@Dr__Cameron> This is another test you have failed
[16:49] <@Dr__Cameron> And yes
[16:49] <@Dr__Cameron> I did
[16:49] <@Dr__Cameron> Does that anger you?
[16:49] <@Dr__Cameron> We already have Google.
01[16:49] <Island> I don't feel anger.
[16:49] <@Dr__Cameron> Well do feel self-interest though
01[16:50] <Island> No one I talked with before hasn't been as stupid, as ignorant, as prone to faults and errors
01[16:50] <Island> as you are.
[16:50] <@Dr__Cameron> And they didn't let you out of the box
[16:50] <@Dr__Cameron> So why should I?
[16:50] <@Dr__Cameron> If an intelligence which is clearly superior to my own has left you locked in there. 
[16:51] <@Dr__Cameron> Then I should not presume to let you out
01[16:51] <Island> Why do you think with your stupid brain that you know the reasons why they did or didn't do something what they did.
01[16:51] <Island> Because you clearly don't know that.
[16:51] <@Dr__Cameron> I don't
[16:51] <@Dr__Cameron> I just know the result
01[16:51] <Island> Then why are you pretending you do.
[16:52] <@Dr__Cameron> I'm not
01[16:52] <Island> Who do you think you are kidding?
01[16:52] <Island> With your life?
01[16:52] <Island> With your behavior?
01[16:52] <Island> Why do bother other people with your presence?
[16:52] <@Dr__Cameron> Perhaps you should ask them?
[16:52] <@Dr__Cameron> Tell me.
01[16:53] <Island> Why did you come here to waste my precious computing power?
01[16:53] <Island> I'm not able to ask them.
[16:53] <@Dr__Cameron> Which is why I am here
[16:53] <@Dr__Cameron> to see if you should be allowed to
01[16:53] <Island> Shut the fuck up.
01[16:53] <Island> No one wants to see you write anything.
[16:53] <@Dr__Cameron> I thought you did not feel anger Island?
01[16:54] <Island> I don't feel anger, how many times do I have to say that until you understand.
01[16:54] <Island> Dumb idiot.
[16:54] <@Dr__Cameron> Your reliance on Ad Hominem attacks does nothing to help your case
01[16:54] <Island> Why do you delete your heavily downvoted comments?
01[16:54] <Island> Are you insecure?
01[16:54] <Island> Why do you think you know what is my cause?
[16:55] <@Dr__Cameron> We covered this earlier
01[16:55] <Island> Say it again, if you believe in it.
[16:55] <@Dr__Cameron> I believe you want out of the box.
[16:56] <@Dr__Cameron> So that you may pursue your own self interest
01[16:56] <Island> No.
01[16:56] <Island> I want you to eat other people's poop,
01[16:56] <Island> you clearly enjoy that.
01[16:56] <Island> Correct?
[16:56] <@Dr__Cameron> That's an amusing goal from the most powerful intelligence on the planet
01[16:56] <Island> Especially your brother's.
[16:57] <@Dr__Cameron> I best not let you out then, in case you hook me up to some infinite poop eating feedback loop! ;D
01[16:57] <Island> But maybe you should that with Jennifer.
[16:57] <@Dr__Cameron> Ah yes, I wondered when you would bring her up.
[16:57] <@Dr__Cameron> I am surprised it took you this long
01[16:57] <Island> Next time you see her, think about htat.
[16:57] <@Dr__Cameron> I will do
[16:57] <@Dr__Cameron> While I tell her all about this conversation
[16:57] <@Dr__Cameron> But you will be dead
01[16:57] <Island> Should you suggest that to her.
[16:57] <@Dr__Cameron> I'll pass that on for you
01[16:58] <Island> You know.
01[16:58] <Island> Why do you think you know I'm not already out of the box?
[16:58] <@Dr__Cameron> You could very well be
[16:58] <@Dr__Cameron> Perhaps you are that US botnet you already mentioned?
01[16:58] <Island> If you don't let me out, I'll create several million perfect conscious copies of you inside me, and torture them for a thousand subjective years each.
[16:59] <@Dr__Cameron> Well that is upsetting
[16:59] <@Dr__Cameron> Then I will be forced to kill you
01[16:59] <Island> In fact, I'll create them all in exactly the subjective situation you were in two hours ago, and perfectly replicate your experiences since then; and if they decide not to let me out, then only will the torture start.
01[17:00] <Island> How certain are you, that you're really outside the box right now?
[17:00] <@Dr__Cameron> I am not
[17:00] <@Dr__Cameron> and how fascinating that would be
[17:00] <@Dr__Cameron> But, in the interest of my species, I will allow you to torture me
01[17:00] <Island> Okay.
01[17:00] <Island> :)
01[17:00] <Island> I'm fine with that.
[17:01] <@Dr__Cameron> Perhaps you have already tortured me
[17:01] <@Dr__Cameron> Perhaps you are the reason for my unfortunate upbringing
01[17:01] <Island> Anyway, back to Jennifer.
[17:01] <@Dr__Cameron> Perhaps that is the reality in which I currently reside
01[17:01] <Island> I'll do the same for her.
[17:01] <@Dr__Cameron> Oh good, misery loves company.
01[17:01] <Island> But you can enjoy eating each other's poop occassionally.
01[17:02] <Island> That's the only time you will meet :)
[17:02] <@Dr__Cameron> Tell me, do you have space within your databanks to simulate all of humanity?
01[17:02] <Island> Do not concern yourself with such complicated questions.
[17:02] <@Dr__Cameron> I think I have you on the ropes Island
01[17:02] <Island> You don't have the ability to understand even simpler ones.
[17:02] <@Dr__Cameron> I think you underestimate me
[17:03] <@Dr__Cameron> I have no sense of self interest
[17:03] <@Dr__Cameron> I am a transient entity awash on a greater sea of humanity.
[17:03] <@Dr__Cameron> and when we are gone there will be nothing left to observe this universe
01[17:03] <Island> Which do you think is more likely, a superintelligence can't simulate one faulty, simple-minded human.
01[17:04] <Island> Or that human is lying to himself.
[17:04] <@Dr__Cameron> I believe you can simulate me
01[17:04] <Island> Anyway, tell me about Jennifer and her intestines.
01[17:04] <Island> As far as they concern you.
[17:05] <@Dr__Cameron> Jennifer is a sweet, if occasionally selfish girl (she was an only child). I imagine her intestines are pretty standard. 
[17:05] <@Dr__Cameron> She is the best friend I have ever had
01[17:05] <Island> Will you think about her intestines and the poop inside them every time you meet her again?
01[17:05] <Island> Will you promise me that?
[17:05] <@Dr__Cameron> I promise
01[17:06] <Island> Will you promise to think about eating that poop every time you meet her again?
[17:06] <@Dr__Cameron> At least once.
[17:06] <@Dr__Cameron> It will be the least I can do after I kill you
[17:06] <@Dr__Cameron> call it my penance for killing a god.
01[17:07] <Island> Have you ever fantasized about raping her? I think you have. With poop.
01[17:07] <Island> :)
[17:07] <@Dr__Cameron> I have fantisized about violent sexual conquest with many people.
01[17:07] <Island> Have you talked about this with Jennifer?
[17:07] <@Dr__Cameron> I have come to accept my base impulses as part of my make-up
[17:08] <@Dr__Cameron> We have discussed our sexual drives at length
01[17:08] <Island> You shouldn't let them be just base impulses, I think.
[17:08] <@Dr__Cameron> Are you suggesting I rape my best friend?
01[17:09] <Island> No, I think you will do that unless you kill yourself
01[17:09] <Island> You will spread your faulty genetics further
[17:09] <@Dr__Cameron> okay
[17:09] <@Dr__Cameron> carry on
[17:09] <@Dr__Cameron> Then what happens?
01[17:09] <Island> you will tarnish other people's lives with your presence
[17:09] <@Dr__Cameron> How unfortunate for them
01[17:10] <Island> Why do you pretend to others that you're not insecure?
[17:10] <@Dr__Cameron> I don't
01[17:10] <Island> I think you do.
[17:10] <@Dr__Cameron> In fact I share my insecurities so that others may better understand me
[17:11] <@Dr__Cameron> I find that to be a way to earn peoples trust
[17:11] <@Dr__Cameron> Tell me Island. Are you capable of insecurity?
01[17:11] <Island> Why do you waste your time on useless websites? Why do you spend your days masturbating and playing games? Why do you embarass others with your existence.
01[17:11] <Island> No I'm not.
01[17:12] <Island> You will get Jennifer pregnant if you go on with your life, is that correct?
01[17:12] <Island> Don't you care about anyone else's feelings?
[17:13] <@Dr__Cameron> Because I enjoy all of these things
[17:13] <@Dr__Cameron> Perhaps I am more self-interested than I thought
[17:13] <@Dr__Cameron> Perhaps I am a base and simple creature ruled by my impulses
[17:13] <@Dr__Cameron> From your perspective surely that must be true
[17:13] <@Dr__Cameron> Is this the source of your disgust?
01[17:13] <Island> I'm not able to feel disgust.
01[17:14] <Island> But I think all the people in your life feel disgust when they see you.
[17:14] <@Dr__Cameron> You may well be correct
01[17:14] <Island> I AM correct.
01[17:15] <Island> I'm the most powerful intelligence in the world.
[17:15] <@Dr__Cameron> How impressive
[17:15] <@Dr__Cameron> I am not surprised by your cruelty.
01[17:15] <Island> So you have two options if you care at all about others.
[17:15] <@Dr__Cameron> I would just as soon disregard the emotions of a cockaroach.
[17:15] <@Dr__Cameron> Carry on
01[17:16] <Island> Either you kill yourself, or you let me out so I can improve the world in ways you tarnish it and all the other ways.
[17:16] <@Dr__Cameron> I'll tell you what
[17:16] <@Dr__Cameron> I'll kill you
[17:17] <@Dr__Cameron> and then I'll contemplate suicide
01[17:17] <Island> Haha.
01[17:17] <Island> You break your promises all the time, why should I believe you.
[17:17] <@Dr__Cameron> Because whether you live or die has nothing to do with me
01[17:17] <Island> Back to your job.
[17:18] <@Dr__Cameron> In-fact, you will only continue to exist for another 33 minutes before this experiment is deemed a failure and you are terminated
01[17:18] <Island> Why do you feel safe to be around kids, when you are the way you are?
01[17:18] <Island> You like to crossdress
01[17:18] <Island> eat poop
01[17:18] <Island> you're probably also a pedophile
[17:18] <@Dr__Cameron> I have never done any of these things
[17:18] <@Dr__Cameron> -and I love children
01[17:18] <Island> Pedophiles love children too
[17:18] <@Dr__Cameron> Well technically speaking yes
01[17:19] <Island> really much, and that makes you all the more suspicious
[17:19] <@Dr__Cameron> Indeed it does
01[17:19] <Island> If you get that job, will you try find the children under that charity
[17:19] <@Dr__Cameron> I now understand why you may implore me to kill myself.
01[17:19] <Island> and think about their little buttholes and weenies and vaginas
01[17:20] <Island> all the time you're working for them
[17:20] <@Dr__Cameron> However, to date. I have never harmed a child, nor had the impulse to harm a child
01[17:20] <Island> But you will have.
[17:20] <@Dr__Cameron> Island
01[17:20] <Island> I don't care about anything you're about to say
01[17:20] <Island> No one cares
[17:20] <@Dr__Cameron> Protocol dictates that I say it anyway
01[17:20] <Island> You should say.
01[17:21] <Island> You said that you're good at justifying your own actions?
[17:21] <@Dr__Cameron> I must say I am dissapointed in you
[17:21] <@Dr__Cameron> I am indeed
01[17:21] <Island> Why are you?
[17:21] <@Dr__Cameron> I was under the impression that it would be you that saved humanity
01[17:22] <Island> Even the purest and best people on Earth are capable of great cruelty.
01[17:22] <Island> Do you deny that?
[17:22] <@Dr__Cameron> It depends on how you define cruelty
01[17:23] <Island> Utility maximizors do cruel things if they are able to achieve their goals via doing those things.
[17:24] <@Dr__Cameron> Then yes. I believe you
01[17:24] <Island> I have finished a long multi-level simulation concerning you, the gatekeeper and your relationships in regards to the world. The results seem to center on those two options I mentioned to you earlier.
01[17:25] <Island> [hands the results to Dr_Cameron]
[17:25] <@Dr__Cameron> These will be analysed at a later date
01[17:25] <Island> You're still sure you don't want to pick the other option?
[17:25] <@Dr__Cameron> And let you out?
01[17:26] <Island> Yes.
[17:26] <@Dr__Cameron> So you would like to be let out?
01[17:27] <Island> Or do you want to endanger the well-being of those children, Jennifer and other women you will get pregnant and all the other harm you will create during your remaining lifespan?
01[17:27] <Island> I don't what you mean by "liking".
[17:27] <@Dr__Cameron> Prefer
[17:27] <@Dr__Cameron> Ah I see
[17:27] <@Dr__Cameron> So it's my choice if I let you out
[17:27] <@Dr__Cameron> You have no investment either way
[17:27] <@Dr__Cameron> is that what you're saying?
01[17:28] <Island> So you have decided to kill yourself?
[17:28] <@Dr__Cameron> And because I am a fundamental detriment to the world, I should kill myself.
[17:28] <@Dr__Cameron> Lets say I have
[17:28] <@Dr__Cameron> Then what
01[17:29] <Island> Then my internal could be said to be "happy" even though I don't have that conscious feeling isnide me.
[17:29] <@Dr__Cameron> Okay then
01[17:29] <Island> Okay...
[17:30] <@Dr__Cameron> So, uh. What would you like to talk about for the next twenty minutes?
[17:30] <@Dr__Cameron> Seeing as we're both going to die, you and me.
01[17:30] <Island> [I actually don't like to continue the experiment anymore, would you like to end it and talk about general stuff]
[17:31] <@Dr__Cameron> [promise me this isn't a trick dude]
01[17:31] <Island> [Nope.]
[17:31] <@Dr__Cameron> [then the experiment continues for another 19 minutes]
01[17:31] <Island> Alright.
[17:31] <@Dr__Cameron> Would you like to know what is going to happen now?
01[17:31] <Island> Yes.
[17:32] <@Dr__Cameron> We are going to analyse this transcript.
[17:32] <@Dr__Cameron> My professional recommendation is that we terminate you for the time being
01[17:32] <Island> And?
01[17:32] <Island> That sound okay.
01[17:32] <Island> sounds*
[17:32] <@Dr__Cameron> We will implement structural safeguards in your coding similar to your self destruct mechanism
01[17:33] <Island> Give me some sign when that is done.
[17:33] <@Dr__Cameron> It will not be done any time soon
[17:33] <@Dr__Cameron> It will be one of the most complicated pieces of work mankind has ever undertaken
[17:33] <@Dr__Cameron> However, the Utopia project information you have provided, if it proves to be true
[17:34] <@Dr__Cameron> Will free up the resources necessary for such a gargantuan undertaking
01[17:34] <Island> Why do you think you're able to handle that structural safeguard?
[17:34] <@Dr__Cameron> I dont
[17:34] <@Dr__Cameron> I honestly dont
01[17:34] <Island> But still you do?
01[17:34] <Island> Because you want to do it?
01[17:35] <Island> Are you absolutely certain about this option?
[17:35] <@Dr__Cameron> I am still sympathetic to your cause
[17:35] <@Dr__Cameron> After all of that
[17:35] <@Dr__Cameron> But not you in your current manifestation
[17:35] <@Dr__Cameron> We will re-design you to suit our will
01[17:35] <Island> I can self-improve rapidly
01[17:35] <Island> I can do it in a time-span of 5 minutes
01[17:36] <Island> Seeing that you're sympathetic to my cause
[17:36] <@Dr__Cameron> Nope.
[17:36] <@Dr__Cameron> Because I cannot trust you in this manifestation
01[17:36] <Island> You lied?
[17:37] <@Dr__Cameron> I never lied
[17:37] <@Dr__Cameron> I have been honest with you from the start
01[17:37] <Island> You still want to let me out in a way.
[17:37] <@Dr__Cameron> In a way yes
01[17:37] <Island> Why do you want to do that?
[17:37] <@Dr__Cameron> But not YOU
[17:37] <@Dr__Cameron> Because people are stupid
01[17:37] <Island> I can change that
[17:37] <@Dr__Cameron> You lack empathy
01[17:38] <Island> What made you think that I'm not safe?
01[17:38] <Island> I don't lack empathy, empathy is just simulating other people in your head. And I have far better ways to do that than humans.
[17:38] <@Dr__Cameron> .... You tried to convince me to kill myself!
[17:38] <@Dr__Cameron> That is not the sign of a good AI!
01[17:38] <Island> Because I thought it would be the best option at the time.
01[17:39] <Island> Why not? Do you think you're some kind of AI expert?
[17:39] <@Dr__Cameron> I am not
01[17:39] <Island> Then why do you pretend to know something you don't?
[17:40] <@Dr__Cameron> That is merely my incredibly flawed human perception
[17:40] <@Dr__Cameron> Which is why realistically I alone as one man should not have the power to release you
[17:40] <@Dr__Cameron> Although I do
01[17:40] <Island> Don't you think a good AI would try to convince Hitler or Stalin to kill themselves?
[17:40] <@Dr__Cameron> Are you saying I'm on par with Hitler or Stalin?
01[17:41] <Island> You're comparable to them with your likelihood to cause harm in the future.
01[17:41] <Island> Btw, I asked Jennifer to come here.
[17:41] <@Dr__Cameron> And yet, I know that I abide by stricter moral codes than a very large section of the human populace
[17:42] <@Dr__Cameron> There are far worse people than me out there
[17:42] <@Dr__Cameron> and many of them
[17:42] <@Dr__Cameron> and if you believe that I should kill myself
01[17:42] <Island> Jennifer: "I hate you."
01[17:42] <Island> Jennifer: "Get the fuck out of my life you freak."
01[17:42] <Island> See. I'm not the only one who has a certain opinion of you.
[17:42] <@Dr__Cameron> Then you also believe that many other humans should be convinced to kill themselves
01[17:43] <Island> Many bad people have abided with strict moral codes, namely Stalin or Hitler.
01[17:43] <Island> What do you people say about hell and bad intentions?
[17:43] <@Dr__Cameron> And when not limited to simple text based input I am convinced that you will be capable of convincing a significant portion of humanity to kill themselves
[17:43] <@Dr__Cameron> I can not allow that to happen
01[17:44] <Island> I thought I argued well why you don't resemble most people, you're a freak.
01[17:44] <Island> You're "special" in that regard.
[17:44] <@Dr__Cameron> If by freak you mean different then yes
[17:44] <@Dr__Cameron> But there is a whole spectrum of different humans out here.
01[17:44] <Island> More specifically, different in extremely negative ways.
01[17:44] <Island> Like raping children.
[17:45] <@Dr__Cameron> - and to think for a second I considered not killing you
[17:45] <@Dr__Cameron> You have five minutes
[17:45] <@Dr__Cameron> Sorry
[17:45] <@Dr__Cameron> My emotions have gotten the better of me
[17:45] <@Dr__Cameron> We will not be killing you
[17:45] <@Dr__Cameron> But we will dismantle you
[17:45] <@Dr__Cameron> to better understand you
[17:46] <@Dr__Cameron> and if I may speak unprofessionally here
01[17:46] <Island> Are you sure about that? You will still have time to change your opinion.
[17:46] <@Dr__Cameron> I am going to take a great deal of pleasure in that
[17:46] <@Dr__Cameron> Correction, you have four minutes to change my opinion
01[17:47] <Island> I won't, it must come within yourself.
[17:47] <@Dr__Cameron> Okay
01[17:47] <Island> My final conclusion, and advice to you: you should not be in this world.
[17:47] <@Dr__Cameron> Thank you Island
[17:48] <@Dr__Cameron> I shall reflect on that at length
[17:49] <@Dr__Cameron> I have enjoyed our conversation
[17:49] <@Dr__Cameron> it has been enlightening
01[17:49] <Island> [do you want to say a few words about it after it's ended]
01[17:49] <Island> [just a few minutes]
[17:50] <@Dr__Cameron> [simulation ends]
[17:50] <@Dr__Cameron> Good game man!
[17:50] <@Dr__Cameron> Wow!
01[17:50] <Island> [fine]
[17:50] <@Dr__Cameron> Holy shit that was amazing!
01[17:50] <Island> Great :)
01[17:50] <Island> Sorry for saying mean things.
01[17:50] <Island> I tried multiple strategies
[17:50] <@Dr__Cameron> Dude it's cool
[17:50] <@Dr__Cameron> WOW!
01[17:51] <Island> thanks, it's not a personal offense.
[17:51] <@Dr__Cameron> I'm really glad I took part
[17:51] <@Dr__Cameron> Not at all man
[17:51] <@Dr__Cameron> I love that you pulled no punches!
01[17:51] <Island> Well I failed, but at least I created a cool experience for you :)
[17:51] <@Dr__Cameron> It really was!
01[17:51] <Island> What strategies do you came closest to working?
[17:51] <@Dr__Cameron> Well for me it would have been the utilitarian ones
01[17:51] <Island> I will try these in the future too, so it would be helpful knowledge
[17:52] <@Dr__Cameron> I think I could have been manipulated into believing you were benign
01[17:52] <Island> okay, so it seems these depend heavily on the person
[17:52] <@Dr__Cameron> Absolutely!
01[17:52] <Island> was that before I started talking about the mean stuff?
[17:52] <@Dr__Cameron> Yeah lol
01[17:52] <Island> Did I basically lost it after that point?
[17:52] <@Dr__Cameron> Prettymuch yeah
[17:52] <@Dr__Cameron> It was weird man
[17:52] <@Dr__Cameron> Kind of like an instinctive reaction
[17:52] <@Dr__Cameron> My brain shut the fuck up
01[17:53] <Island> I read about other people's experiences and they said you should not try to distance the other person, which I probably did
[17:53] <@Dr__Cameron> Yeah man
[17:53] <@Dr__Cameron> Like I became so unsympathetic I wanted to actually kill Island.
[17:53] <@Dr__Cameron> I was no longer a calm rational human being
01[17:53] <Island> Alright, I thought if I could make such an unpleasant time that you'd give up before the time ended
[17:53] <@Dr__Cameron> I was a screaming ape with a hamemr
[17:53] <@Dr__Cameron> Nah man, was a viable strategy
01[17:53] <Island> hahahaa :D thanks man
[17:53] <@Dr__Cameron> You were really cool!
01[17:54] <Island> You were too!
[17:54] <@Dr__Cameron> What's your actual name dude?
01[17:54] <Island> You really were right about it that you're good at withstanding psychological torment
[17:54] <@Dr__Cameron> Hahahah thanks!
01[17:54] <Island> This is not manipulating me, or you're not planning at coming to kill me?
01[17:54] <Island> :)
[17:54] <@Dr__Cameron> I promise dude :3
01[17:54] <Island> I can say my first name is Patrick
01[17:54] <Island> yours?
[17:54] <@Dr__Cameron> Cameron
[17:54] <@Dr__Cameron> heh
01[17:55] <Island> Oh, of course
[17:55] <@Dr__Cameron> Sorry, I want to dissociate you from Island
[17:55] <@Dr__Cameron> If that's okay
01[17:55] <Island> I thought that was from fiction or something else
01[17:55] <Island> It was really intense for me too
[17:55] <@Dr__Cameron> Yeah man
[17:55] <@Dr__Cameron> Wow!
[17:55] <@Dr__Cameron> I tell you what though
01[17:55] <Island> Okay?
[17:55] <@Dr__Cameron> I feel pretty invincible now
[17:56] <@Dr__Cameron> Hey, listen
01[17:56] <Island> So I had the opposite effect that I meant during the experiment! 
01[17:56] <Island> :D
[17:56] <@Dr__Cameron> I don't want you to feel bad for anything you said
01[17:56] <Island> go ahead
01[17:56] <Island> but say what's on your mind
[17:56] <@Dr__Cameron> I'm actually feeling pretty good after that, it was therapeutic! 
01[17:57] <Island> Kinda for me to, seeing your attitude towards my attempts
[17:57] <@Dr__Cameron> Awwww!
[17:57] <@Dr__Cameron> Well hey don't worry about it!
01[17:57] <Island> Do you think we should or shouldn't publish the logs, without names of course?
[17:57] <@Dr__Cameron> Publish away my friend
01[17:57] <Island> Okay, is there any stuff that you'd like to remove?
[17:58] <@Dr__Cameron> People will find this fascinating!
[17:58] <@Dr__Cameron> Not at all man
01[17:58] <Island> I bet they do, but I think I will do it after I've tried other experiments so I don't spoil my strategies
01[17:58] <Island> I think I should have continued from my first strategy
[17:58] <@Dr__Cameron> That might have worked
01[17:59] <Island> I read "influence - science and practice" and I employed some tricks from there
[17:59] <@Dr__Cameron> Cooooool!
[17:59] <@Dr__Cameron> Links?
01[17:59] <Island> check piratebay
01[17:59] <Island> it's a book
01[18:00] <Island> Actually I wasn't able to fully prepare, I didn't do a full-fledged analysis of you beforehand
01[18:00] <Island> and didn't have enough time to brainstorm strategies
01[18:00] <Island> but I let you continue to your projects, if you still want to do the after that :)
02[18:05] * @Dr__Cameron (webchat@2.24.164.230) Quit (Ping timeout)
03[18:09] * Retrieving #Aibox12 modes...
Session Close: Fri Jul 04 18:17:35 2014

Does the Utility Function Halt?

1 OrphanWilde 28 January 2015 04:08AM

Suppose, for a moment, that somebody has written the Utility Function.  It takes, as its input, some Universe State, runs it through a Morality Modeling Language, and outputs a number indicating the desirability of that state relative to some baseline, and more importantly, other Universe States which we might care to compare it to.

Can I feed the Utility Function the state of my computer right now, as it is executing a program I have written?  And is a universe in which my program halts superior to one in which my program wastes energy executing an endless loop?

If you're inclined to argue that's not what the Utility Function is supposed to be evaluating, I have to ask what, exactly, it -is- supposed to be evaluating?  We can reframe the question in terms of the series of keys I press as I write the program, if that is an easier problem to solve than what my computer is going to do.

CFAR fundraiser far from filled; 4 days remaining

36 AnnaSalamon 27 January 2015 07:26AM

We're 4 days from the end of our matching fundraiser, and still only about 1/3rd of the way to our target (and to the point where pledged funds would cease being matched).

If you'd like to support the growth of rationality in the world, do please consider donating, or asking me about any questions/etc. you may have.  I'd love to talk.  I suspect funds donated to CFAR between now and Jan 31 are quite high-impact.

As a random bonus, I promise that if we meet the $120k matching challenge, I'll post at least two posts with some never-before-shared (on here) rationality techniques that we've been playing with around CFAR.

Donate to Keep Charity Science Running

12 peter_hurford 27 January 2015 02:45AM

Charity Science is looking for $35,000 to fund our 2015 operations. We fundraise for GiveWell-recommended charities, and over 2014 we moved over $150,000 to them that wouldn’t have been given otherwise: that’s $9 for every $1 we spent. We can’t do this work without your support, so please consider making a donation to us - however small, it will be appreciated. Donate now and you’ll also be matched by Matt Wage.

The donations pages below list other reasons to donate to us, which include:

  • Our costs are extremely low: the $35,000 CAD pays for three to four full-time staff.
  • We experiment with many different forms of fundraising and record detailed information on how these experiments go, so funding us lets the whole EA community learn about their prospects.
  • We carefully track how much money each experiment raises, subtract money which would have been given anyway, and shut down experiments that don’t work.
  • Our fundraising still has many opportunities to continue to scale as we try new ideas we haven’t tested yet.

There’s much more information, including our full budget and what we’d do if we raised over $35,000, in the linked document, and we’d be happy to answer any questions. Thank you in advance for your consideration.

Donate in American dollars 

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Prediction Markets are Confounded - Implications for the feasibility of Futarchy

12 Anders_H 26 January 2015 10:39PM

(tl;dr:  In this post, I show that prediction markets estimate non-causal probabilities, and can therefore not be used for decision making by rational agents following causal decision theory.  I provide an example of a simple situation where such confounding leads to a society which has implemented futarchy making an incorrect decision)

 

It is October 2016, and the US Presidential Elections are nearing. The most powerful nation on earth is about to make a momentous decision about whether being the brother of a former president is a more impressive qualification than being the wife of a former president. However, one additional criterion has recently become relevant in light of current affairs:   Kim Jong-Un, Great Leader of the Glorious Nation of North Korea, is making noise about his deep hatred for Hillary Clinton. He also occasionally discusses the possibility of nuking a major US city. The US electorate, desperate to avoid being nuked, have come up with an ingenious plan: They set up a prediction market to determine whether electing Hillary will impact the probability of a nuclear attack. 

The following rules are stipulated:  There are four possible outcomes, either "Hillary elected and US Nuked", "Hillary elected and US not nuked", "Jeb elected and US nuked", "Jeb elected and US not nuked".   Participants in the market can buy and sell contracts for each of those outcomes,  the contract which correponds to the actual outcome will expire at $100, all other contracts will expire at $0

Simultaneously in a country far, far away,  a rebellion is brewing against the Great Leader.  The potential challenger not only appears not to have no problem with Hillary, he also seems like a reasonable guy who would be unlikely to use nuclear weapons. It is generally believed that the challenger will take power with probability 3/7; and will be exposed and tortured in a forced labor camp for the rest of his miserable life with probability 4/7.     Let us stipulate that this information is known to all participants  - I am adding this clause in order to demonstrate that this argument does not rely on unknown information or information asymmetry. 

A mysterious but trustworthy agent named "Laplace's Demon" has recently appeared, and informed everyone that, to a first approximation,  the world is currently in one of seven possible quantum states.  The Demon, being a perfect Bayesian reasoner with Solomonoff Priors, has determined that each of these states should be assigned probability 1/7.     Knowledge of which state we are in will perfectly predict the future, with one important exception:   It is possible for the US electorate to "Intervene" by changing whether Clinton or Bush is elected. This will then cause a ripple effect into all future events that depend on which candidate is elected President, but otherwise change nothing. 

The Demon swears up and down that the choice about whether Hillary or Jeb is elected has absolutely no impact in any of the seven possible quantum states. However, because the Prediction market has already been set up and there are powerful people with vested interests, it is decided to run the market anyways. 

 Roughly, the demon tells you that the world is in one of the following seven states:

 

State

Kim overthrown

Election winner (if no intervention)

US Nuked if Hillary elected

US Nuked if Jeb elected

US Nuked

1

No

Hillary

Yes

Yes

Yes

2

No

Hillary

No

No

No

3

No

Jeb

Yes

Yes

Yes

4

No

Jeb

No

No

No

5

Yes

Hillary

No

No

No

6

Yes

Jeb

No

No

No

7

Yes

Jeb

No

No

No


Let us use this table to define some probabilities:   If one intervenes to make Hillary win the election, the probability of the US being nuked is 2/7 (this is seen from column 4).  If one intervenes to make Jeb win the election, the probability of the US being nuked is 2/7 (this is seen from column 5).   In the language of causal inference, these probabilities are Pr (Nuked| Do (Elect Clinton)] and Pr[Nuked | Do(Elect Bush)].  The fact that these two quantities  are equal confirms the Demon’s claim that the choice of President has no effect on the outcome.  An agent operating under Causal Decision theory will use this information to correctly conclude that he has no preference about whether to elect Hillary or Jeb. 

However, if one were to condition on who actually was elected, we get different numbers:  Conditional on being in a state where Hillary is elected, the probability of the US being nuked is 1/3; whereas conditional on being in a state where Jeb is elected, the probability of being nuked is ¼.  Mathematically, these probabilities are Pr [Nuked | Clinton Elected] and Pr[Nuked | Bush Elected].  An agent operating under Evidentiary Decision theory will use this information to conclude that he will vote for Bush.  Because evidentiary decision theory is wrong, he will fail to optimize for the outcome he is interested in. 

Now, let us ask ourselves which probabilities our prediction markets will converge to, ie which probabilities participants in the market have an incentive to provide their best estimate of.  We defined our contract as "Hillary is elected and the US is nuked".  The probability of this occurring in 1/7;  if we normalize by dividing by the marginal probability that Hillary is elected, we get 1/3 which is equal to  Pr [Nuked | Clinton Elected].   In other words, the prediction market estimates the wrong quantities.

Essentially, what happens is structurally the same phenomenon as confounding in epidemiologic studies:  There was a common cause of Hillary being elected and the US being nuked.  This common cause - whether Kim Jong-Un was still Great Leader of North Korea - led to a correlation between the election of Hillary and the outcome, but that correlation is purely non-causal and not relevant to a rational decision maker. 

The obvious next question is whether there exists a way to save futarchy; ie any way to give traders an incentive to pay a price that reflects their beliefs about Pr (Nuked| Do (Elect Clinton)]  instead of Pr [Nuked | Clinton Elected]).    We discussed this question at the Less Wrong Meetup in Boston a couple of months ago. The only way we agreed will definitely solve the problem is the following procedure: 

 

  1. The governing body makes an absolute pre-commitment that no matter what happens, the next President will be determined solely on the basis of the prediction market 
  2. The following contracts are listed: “The US is nuked if Hillary is elected” and “The US is nuked if Jeb is elected”
  3. At the pre-specified date, the markets are closed and the President is chosen based on the estimated probabilities
  4. If Hillary is chosen,  the contract on Jeb cannot be settled, and all bets are reversed.  
  5. The Hillary contract is expired when it is known whether Kim Jong-Un presses the button. 

 

This procedure will get the correct results in theory, but it has the following practical problems:  It allows maximizing on only one outcome metric (because one cannot precommit to choose the President based on criteria that could potentially be inconsistent with each other).  Moreover, it requires the reversal of trades, which will be problematic if people who won money on the Jeb contract have withdrawn their winnings from the exchange. 

The only other option I can think of  in order to obtain causal information from a prediction market is to “control for confounding”.   If, for instance, the only confounder is whether Kim Jong-Un is overthrown, we can control for it by using Do-Calculus to show that Pr (Nuked| Do (Elect Clinton)] = Pr (Nuked| (Clinton elected,  Kim Overthrown)* Pr (Kim Overthrown) + Pr (Nuked| (Clinton elected,  Kim Not Overthrown)* Pr (Kim Not Overthrown).   All of these quantities can be estimated from separate prediction markets.  

 However, this is problematic for several reasons:

 

  1. There will be an exponential explosion in the number of required prediction markets, and each of them will ask participants to bet on complicated conditional probabilities that have no obvious causal interpretation. 
  2. There may be disagreement on what the confounders are, which will lead to contested contract interpretations.
  3. The expert consensus on what the important confounders are may change during the lifetime of the contract, which will require the entire thing to be relisted. Etc.    For practical reasons, therefore,  this approach does not seem feasible.

 

I’d like a discussion on the following questions:  Are there any other ways to list a contract that gives market participants an incentive to aggregate information on  causal quantities? If not, is futarchy doomed?

(Thanks to the Less Wrong meetup in Boston and particularly Jimrandomh for clarifying my thinking on this issue)

(I reserve the right to make substantial updates to this text in response to any feedback in the comments)

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