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What useless things did you understand recently?

2 cousin_it 28 June 2017 07:32PM

Please reply in the comments with things you understood recently. The only condition is that they have to be useless in your daily life. For example, "I found this idea that defeats procrastination" doesn't count, because it sounds useful and you might be deluded about its truth. Whereas "I figured out how construction cranes are constructed" qualifies, because you aren't likely to use it and it will stay true tomorrow.

I'll start. Today I understood how Heyting algebras work as a model for intuitionistic logic. The main idea is that you represent sentences as shapes. So you might have two sentences A and B shown as two circles, then "A and B" is their intersection, "A or B" is their union, etc. But "A implies B" doesn't mean one circle lies inside the other, as you might think! Instead it's a shape too, consisting of all points that lie outside A or inside B (or both). There were some other details about closed and open sets, but these didn't cause a problem for me, while "A implies B" made me stumble for some reason. I probably won't use Heyting algebras for anything ever, but it was pretty fun to figure out.

Your turn!

PS: please don't feel pressured to post something super advanced. It's really, honestly okay to post basic things, like why a stream of tap water narrows as it falls, or why the sky is blue (though I don't claim to understand that one :-))

Self-conscious ideology

2 casebash 28 June 2017 05:32AM

Operating outside of ideology is extremely hard, if not impossible. Even groups that see themselves as non-ideological, still seem to end up operating within an ideology of some sort.

Take for example Less Wrong. It seems to operate within a few assumptions:

  1.  That studying rationality will provide use with a greater understanding of the world. 
  2. That studying rationality will improve you as a person.
  3. That science is one of our most important tools for understanding the world.

...

These assumptions are also subject to some criticisms. Here's one criticism for each of the previous points:

  1. But will it or are we dealing with problems that are simply beyond our ability to understand (see epistemic learned helplessness)? Do we really understand how minds work well enough to know whether a mind uploaded would still be "you"?
  2. But religious people are happier.
  3. Hume's critique of induction

I could continue discussing assumptions and possible criticisms, but that would be a distraction from the core point, which is that there are advantages to having a concrete ideology that is aware of it's own limitations, as opposed to an implicit ideology that is beyond all criticism.

Self-conscious ideologies also have other advantages:

  • Quick and easy to write since you don't have to deal with all of the special cases.
  • Easy to share and explain. Imagine trying to explain to someone, "Rationality gives us a better understanding of the world, except when it does not". Okay, I'm exaggerating, epistemic humility typically isn't explained that badly, but it certainly complicates sharing.
  • Easier for people to adopt the ideology as a lens through which to examine the world, without needing to assume that it is literally true.
I wrote this post so that people can create self-conscious ideologies and have something to link to so as to avoid having to write up an explanation themselves. Go out into the world and create =P.

Self-modification as a game theory problem

10 cousin_it 26 June 2017 08:47PM

In this post I'll try to show a surprising link between two research topics on LW: game-theoretic cooperation between AIs (quining, Loebian cooperation, modal combat, etc) and stable self-modification of AIs (tiling agents, Loebian obstacle, etc).

When you're trying to cooperate with another AI, you need to ensure that its action will fulfill your utility function. And when doing self-modification, you also need to ensure that the successor AI will fulfill your utility function. In both cases, naive utility maximization doesn't work, because you can't fully understand another agent that's as powerful and complex as you. That's a familiar difficulty in game theory, and in self-modification it's known as the Loebian obstacle (fully understandable successors become weaker and weaker).

In general, any AI will be faced with two kinds of situations. In "single player" situations, you're faced with a choice like eating chocolate or not, where you can figure out the outcome of each action. (Most situations covered by UDT are also "single player", involving identical copies of yourself.) Whereas in "multiplayer" situations your action gets combined with the actions of other agents to determine the outcome. Both cooperation and self-modification are "multiplayer" situations, and are hard for the same reason. When someone proposes a self-modification to you, you might as well evaluate it with the same code that you use for game theory contests.

If I'm right, then any good theory for cooperation between AIs will also double as a theory of stable self-modification for a single AI. That means neither problem can be much easier than the other, and in particular self-modification won't be a special case of utility maximization, as some people seem to hope. But on the plus side, we need to solve one problem instead of two, so creating FAI becomes a little bit easier.

The idea came to me while working on this mathy post on IAFF, which translates some game theory ideas into the self-modification world. For example, Loebian cooperation (from the game theory world) can be used to get around the Loebian obstacle (from the self-modification world) - two LW ideas with the same name that people didn't think to combine before!

Open thread, June 26 - July 2, 2017

1 Thomas 26 June 2017 06:12AM
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post, then it goes here.

Notes for future OT posters:

1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.

2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately before; refresh the list-of-threads page before posting.)

3. Open Threads should start on Monday, and end on Sunday.

4. Unflag the two options "Notify me of new top level comments on this article" and "

A Call for More Policy Analysis

1 madhatter 25 June 2017 02:24PM

I would like to see more concrete discussion and analysis of AI policy in the EA community, and on this forum in particular.

 

 AI policy would broadly encompass all relevant actors meaningfully influencing the future and impact of AI, which would likely be governments, research labs and institutes, and international organizations.

 

Some initial thoughts and questions I have on this topic:

 

1)     How do we ensure all research groups with a likely chance of developing AGI know and care about the relevant work in AI safety (which hopefully is satisfactorily worked out by then)?

 

Some possibilities: trying to make AI safety a common feature of computer science curricula, general community building and more AI safety conferences, more popular culture conveying  non-terminatoresque illustrations of the risk.

 

 

2)     What strategies might be available for laggards in a race scenario to retard progress of leading groups, or to steal their research?

Some possibilities in no particular order: espionage, malware, financial or political pressures, power outages, surveillance of researchers.

 

3)     Will there be clear warning signs?

 

Not just in general AI progress, but locally near the leading lab. Observable changes in stock price, electricity output, etc.

 

4)     Openness or secrecy?

Thankfully the Future of Life Institute is working on this one. As I understand the consensus is that openness is advisable now, but secrecy may be necessary later. So what mechanisms are available to keep research private?

 

5)     How many players will there be with a significant chance of developing AGI? Which players?

 

6)     Is an arms race scenario likely?

 

7)     What is the most likely speed of takeoff?

 

 

8)     When and where will AGI be developed?

 

    Personally, I believe the use of forecasting tournaments to get a better sense of when and where AGI will arrive would be a very worthwhile use of our time and resources. After reading Superforecasting by Dan Gardner and Phillip Tetlock I was struck by how effective these tournaments are at singling out those with low Brier scores and using them to get a better-than-average predictions of future circumstances.

 

 

Perhaps the EA community could fund a forecasting tournament on the Good Judgment Project posing questions attempting to ascertain when AGI will be developed (I am guessing superforecasters will make more accurate predictions than AI experts on this topic), which research groups are the most likely candidates to be the developers of the first AGI, and other relevant questions. We would need to formulate the questions such that they are specific enough for use in the tournament. 

[Link] The Use and Abuse of Witchdoctors for Life

5 lifelonglearner 24 June 2017 08:59PM

Effective Altruism : An idea repository

1 Onemorenickname 25 June 2017 12:56AM

Metainformations :

Personal Introduction

I came to define myself as a non-standard Effective Altruist. I’ve always been interested in Effective Altruism, way before I’ve even heard of EA. When I was younger, I simply thought I was altruist, and that what people did was … noise at best. Basically, naive ways to relieve one’s conscience and perpetuate one’s culture.

Since primary school I thought about global problems and solutions to these problems. So much so that the word “project” internally connotes “project solving some global problems”. As such, EA should have interested me.

However, it didn’t. The main reason was that I saw EA as some other charitists. I’ve always been skeptical toward charity, the reason being “They think too small” and “There are too much funding in standard solutions rather than in finding new ones”.

I think this exemplifies a problem about EA’s communication.

A Communication Problem

Most people I know got to know Effective Altruism through EffectiveAltruism.org.

Because of that website, these people see EA as a closed organization that help people to direct funds to better charities and find better careers.

That was my opinion of EA until I saw the grant offer : a closed organization with already defined solutions wouldn’t fund new ideas. As such, I changed my outlook of EA. I researched a bit more about it, and found an open and diverse community.

But I am busy person, therefore I have to use filters before putting more time in researching about something. I made my impression from :

What convinced me of that impression was the website’s content :

  • The tabs are “About, Blog, Donate, Effectively, Resources, Grants, Get Involved”. This looks like a standard showcase website of a closed organization with a call to donate.

  • The first four reading suggestions after the introduction are about charity and career choice. This leads people to thinking that EA is solely about that.

  • In the introduction, the three main questions are “Which cause/career/charity ?”.

I didn’t stop there, and I read more of that website, but it was along those same lines.

Counting me, my friends and people I met on LW and SSC, this directly led to losing 10-15 potential altruists in the community. Given that we were already interested in applying rationality to changing the world and my situation is not isolated (the aforementioned website is the first hit for “Effective Altruism” on Google), I do think that it is an important issue to EA.

Solutions

Well, about the website :

  • Adding a tab “Open Ideas”/“Open projects”, “Forum” and/or “Communities”. The “Get Involved” is the only tab that offers (and only implicitly) some interaction. The new Involvement Guide is an action in the right direction.

  • Putting emphasis on the different communities and approaches. Digging, I’ve seen that there are several communities. However, the most prominent discriminating factor was the location. It would be nice to see a presentation of various approaches of EA, especially in the first resources new members get in touch with.

But more than changing the website, I think that lacking to EA is a platform dedicated to collective thinking about new ideas.

Projects don’t happen magically : people think, come to an idea, think more about that idea, criticize it, and if all goes well, maybe build a plan out of it, gather, and begin a project together. If we truly want new projects to emerge, having such a platform is of utmost importance.

The current forum doesn’t cut it : it isn’t meant to that end. It’s easier to build a forum dedicated to that than try to artificially support a balance between “New Ideas” posts and “Information Sharing” posts so that none of these get overshadowed. The same problem applies to existing reddit boards and facebook groups.

That platform should contain at least the following :

  • A place where new ideas are posted and criticized. A Reddit board, a Fecebook group, a forum.

  • A place where ideas are discussed interactively. An IRC channel, a web chat, a Discord server.

  • A place where ideas/projects are improved collectively and incrementally. A web pad, a Google doc, a Git repository.

  • A basic method to deal with new ideas / project collaboration. Some formatting, some questions that every idea should answer (What problem does it solve ?, How critical is it ?, What’s the solution variance ?), content deletion policy. A sticky-post on the forum, an other Google Doc.

Questions

  • Do you think such a platform would be useful ? Why ?

  • Would you be interested in building such a platform ? Either technically (by setting up the required tools), marketing-ly (by gathering people) or content-ly (by posting and criticizing ideas).

Bi-Weekly Rational Feed

20 deluks917 24 June 2017 12:07AM

===Highly Recommended Articles:

Introducing The Ea Involvement Guide by The Center for Effective Altruism (EA forum) - A huge list of concrete actions you can take to get involved. Every action has a brief description and a link to an article. Each article rates the action on time commitment, duration, familiarity and occupation. Very well put together.

Deep Reinforcement Learning from Human Preferences - An algorithm learns to backflip with 900 bits of feedback from the human evaluator. "One step towards building safe AI systems is to remove the need for humans to write goal functions, since using a simple proxy for a complex goal, or getting the complex goal a bit wrong, can lead to undesirable and even dangerous behavior. In collaboration with DeepMind’s safety team, we’ve developed an algorithm which can infer what humans want by being told which of two proposed behaviors is better."

Build Baby Build by Bryan Caplan - Quote from a paper estimating the high costs of housing restrictions. We should blame the government, especially local government. The top alternate theory is wrong. Which regulations are doing the damage? It's complicated. Functionalists are wrong. State government is our best hope.

The Use And Abuse Of Witchdoctors For Life by Lou (sam[]zdat) - Anti-bullet magic and collective self-defense. Cultural evolution. People don't directly believe in anti-bullet magic, they believe in elders and witch doctors. Seeing like a State. Individual psychology is the foundation. Many psychologically important customs couldn't adapt to the marketplace.

S-risks: Why They Are The Worst Existential Risks by Kaj Sojata (lesswrong) - “S-risk – One where an adverse outcome would bring about severe suffering on a cosmic scale, vastly exceeding all suffering that has existed on Earth so far.” Why we should focus on S-risk. Probability: Artificial sentience, Lack of communication, badly aligned Ai and competitive pressures. Tractability: Relationship with x-risk. Going meta, cooperation. Neglectedness: little attention, people conflate x-risk = s-risk.

Projects Id Like To See by William MacAskill (EA forum) - CEA is giving out £100K grants. General types of applications. EA outreach and Community, Anti-Debates, Prediction Tournaments, Shark Tank Discussions, Research Groups, Specific Skill Building, New Organizations, Writing.

The Battle For Psychology by Jacob Falkovich (Put A Number On It!) - An explanation of 'power' in statistics and why its always good. Low power means that positive results are mostly due to chance. Extremely bad incentives and research practices in psychology. Studying imaginary effects. Several good images.

Identifying Sources Of Cost Disease by Kurt Spindler - Where is the money going: Administration, Increased Utilization, Decreased Risk Tolerance. What market failures are in effect: Unbounded Domains, Signaling and Competitive Pressure (ex: military spending), R&D doesn't cut costs it creates new ways to spend money, individuals don't pay. Some practical strategies to reduce cost disease.

===Scott:

To Understand Polarization Understand The Extent Of Republican Failure by Scott Alexander - Conservative voters voted for “smaller government”, “fewer regulations”, and “less welfare state”. Their reps control most branches of the government. They got more of all three (probably thanks to cost disease).

Against Murderism by Scott Alexander - Three definitions of racism. Why 'Racism as motivation' fits best. The futility of blaming the murder rate in the USA on 'murderism'. Why its often best to focus on motivations other than racism.

Open Thread Comment by John Nerst (SSC) - Bi-weekly public open thread. I am linking to a very interesting comment. The author made a list of the most statistically over-represented words in the SSC comment section.

Some Unsong Guys by Scott Alexander (Scratchpad) - Pictures of Unsong Fan Art.

Silinks Is Golden by Scott Alexander - Standard SSC links post.

What is Depression Anyway: The Synapse Hypothesis - Six seemingly distinct treatments for depression. How at least six can be explained by considering synapse generation rates. Skepticism that this method can be used to explain anything since the body is so inter-connected. Six points that confuse Scott and deserve more research. Very technical.

===Rationalist:

Idea For Lesswrong Video Tutoring by adamzerner (lesswrong) - Community Video Tutoring. Sign up to either give or receive tutoring. Teaching others is a good way to learn and lots of people enjoy teaching. Hopefully enough people want to learn similar things. This could be a great community project and I recommend taking a look.

Regulatory Arbitrage For Medical Research What I Know So Far by Sarah Constantin (Otium) - Economics of avoiding the USA/FDA. Lots of research is already conducted in other countries. The USA is too large of a market not to sell to. Investors aren't interested in cheap preliminary trials. Other options: supplements, medical tourism, clinic ships, cryptocurrency.

Responses To Folk Ontologies by Ferocious Truth - Folk ontology: Concepts and categories held by ordinary people with regard to an idea. Especially pre-scientific or unreflective ones. Responses: Transform/Rescue, Deny or Restrict/Recognize. Rescuing free will and failing to rescue personal identity. Rejecting objective morality. Restricting personal identity and moral language. When to use each approach.

The Battle For Psychology by Jacob Falkovich (Put A Number On It!) - An explanation of 'power' in statistics and why its always good. Low power means that positive results are mostly due to chance. Extremely bad incentives and research practices in psychology. Studying imaginary effects. Several good images.

A Tangled Task Future by Robin Hanson - We need to untangle the economy to automate it. What tasks are heavily tangled and which are not. Ems and the human brain as a legacy system. Human brains are well-integrated and good at tangled tasks.

Epistemic Spot Check Update by Aceso Under Glass - Reviewing self-help books. Properties of a good self-help model: As simple as possible but not more so, explained well, testable on a reasonable timescale, seriously handles the fact the techniques might now work, useful. The author would appreciate feedback.

Skin In The Game by Elo (BearLamp) - Armchair activism and philosophy. Questions to ask yourself about your life. Actually do the five minute exercise at the end.

Momentum Reflectiveness Peace by Sarah Constantin (Otium) - Rationality requires a reflective mindset; a willingness to change course and consider how things could be very different. Momentum, keeping things as they are except more so, is the opposite of reflectivity. Cultivating reflectiveness: rest, contentment, considering ideas lightly and abstractly. “Turn — slowly.”

The Fallacy Fork Why Its Time To Get Rid Of by theFriendlyDoomer (r/SSC) - "The main thesis of our paper is that each and every fallacy in the traditional list runs afoul of the Fallacy Fork. Either you construe the fallacy in a clear-cut and deductive fashion, which means that your definition has normative bite, but also that you hardly find any instances in real life; or you relax your formal definition, making it defeasible and adding contextual qualifications, but then your definition loses its teeth. Your “fallacy” is no longer a fallacy."

Instrumental Rationality 1 Starting Advice by lifelonglerner (lesswrong) - "This is the first post in the Instrumental Rationality Sequence. This is a collection of four concepts that I think are central to instrumental rationality-caring about the obvious, looking for practical things, practicing in pieces, and realistic expectations."

Concrete Ways You Can Help Make The Community Better by deluks917 (lesswrong) - Write more comments on blog posts and non-controversial posts on lw and r/SSC. Especially consider commenting on posts you agree with. People are more likely to comment if other people are posting high quality comments. Projects: Gaming Server, aggregate tumblr effort-posts, improve lesswrong wiki, leadership in local rationalist group

Daring Greatly by Bayesian Investor - Fairly positive book review, some chapters were valuable and it was an easy read. How to overcome shame and how it differs from guilt. Perfectionism vs healthy striving. If you stop caring about what others think you lose your capacity for connection

A Call To Adventure by Robin Hanson - Meaning in life can be found by joining or starting a grand project. Two possible adventures: Promoting and implementing futarchy (decision making via prediction markets). Getting a real understanding of human motivation.

Thought Experiment Coarsegrained Vr Utopia by cousin_it (lesswrong) - Assume an AI is running a Vr simulation that is hooked up to actual human brains. This means that the AI only has to simulate nature at a coarse grained level. How hard would it be to make that virtual reality a utopia?

[The Rationalist-sphere and the Lesswrong Wiki]](http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/p4y/the_rationalistsphere_and_the_less_wrong_wiki/) - What's next for the Lesswrong wiki. A distillation of Lesswrong. Fully indexing the diaspora. A list of communities. Spreading rationalist ideas. Rationalist Research.

Deep Reinforcement Learning from Human Preferences - An algorithm learns to backflip with 900 bits of feedback from the human evaluator. "One step towards building safe AI systems is to remove the need for humans to write goal functions, since using a simple proxy for a complex goal, or getting the complex goal a bit wrong, can lead to undesirable and even dangerous behavior. In collaboration with DeepMind’s safety team, we’ve developed an algorithm which can infer what humans want by being told which of two proposed behaviors is better."

Where Do Hypotheses Come From by c0rw1n (lesswrong) - Link to a 25 page article. "Why are human inferences sometimes remarkably close to the Bayesian ideal and other times systematically biased? In particular, why do humans make near-rational inferences in some natural domains where the candidate hypotheses are explicitly available, whereas tasks in similar domains requiring the self-generation of hypotheses produce systematic deviations from rational inference. We propose that these deviations arise from algorithmic processes approximating Bayes’ rule."

The Precept Of Universalism by H i v e w i r e d - "Universality, the idea that all humans experience life in roughly the same way. Do not put things or ideas above people. Honor and protect all peoples." Eight points expanding on how to put people first and honor everyone.

We Are The Athenians Not The Spartans by wubbles (lesswrong) - "Our values should be Athenian: individualistic, open, trusting, enamored of beauty. When we build social technology, it should not aim to cultivate values that stand against these. High trust, open, societies are the societies where human lives are most improved."

===EA:

Updating My Risk Estimate of Geomagnetic Big One by Open Philosophy - Risk from magnetic storms caused by the sun. "I have raised my best estimate of the chance of a really big storm, like the storied one of 1859, from 0.33% to 0.70% per decade. And I have expanded my 95% confidence interval for this estimate from 0.0–4.0% to 0.0–11.6% per decade."

Links by GiveDirectly - Eight Media articles on Cash Transfers, Basic Income and Effective Altruism.

Are Givewells Top Charities The Best Option For Every Donor by The GiveWell Blog - Why GiveWell recommend charities are a good option for most donors. Which donors have better options: Donors with lots of time, high trust in a particular institution or values different from GiveWell's.

A New President of GWWC by Giving What We Can - Julia Wise is the New president of Giving What We Can.

Angst Ennui And Guilt In Effective Altruism by Gordon (Map and Territory) - Learning about existential risk can cause psychological harm. Guilt about being unable to help solve X-risk. Akrasia. Reasons to not be guilty: comparative advantage, ability is unequally distributed.

S-risks: Why They Are The Worst Existential Risks by Kaj Sojata (lesswrong) - “S-risk – One where an adverse outcome would bring about severe suffering on a cosmic scale, vastly exceeding all suffering that has existed on Earth so far.” Why we should focus on S-risk. Probability: Artificial sentience, Lack of communication, badly aligned Ai and competitive pressures. Tractability: Relationship with x-risk. Going meta, cooperation. Neglectedness: little attention, people conflate x-risk = s-risk.

Update On Sepsis Donations Probably Unnecessary by Sarah Constantin (Otium) - Sarah C had asked people to crowdfund a sepsis RCT. The trial will probably get funded by charitable foundations. Diminishing returns. Finding good giving opportunities is hard and talking to people in the know is a good way to find things out.

What Is Valuable About Effective Altruism by Owen_Cotton-Barratt (EA forum) - Why should people join EA? The impersonal and personal perspectives. Tensions and synergies between the two perspectives. Bullet point conclusions for researchers, community leaders and normal members.

QALYs/$ Are More Intuitive Than $/QALYs by ThomasSittler (EA forum) - QALYs/$ are preferable to $/QALYs. visual representations on graphs. Avoiding Small numbers and re-normalizing to QUALs/10K$.

Introducing The Ea Involvement Guide by The Center for Effective Altruism (EA forum) - A huge list of concrete actions you can take to get involved. Every action has a brief description and a link to an article. Each article rates the action on time commitment, duration, familiarity and occupation. Very well put together.

Cash is King by GiveDirectly - Eight media articles about Effective Altruism and Cash transfers.

Separating GiveWell and the Open Philanthropy Project by The GiveWell Blog - The GiveWell perspective. Context for the sale. Effect on donors who rely on GiveWell. Organization changes at GiveWell. Steps taken to sell Open Phil assets. The new relationship between GiveWell and Open Phil.

Open Philanthropy Project is Now an Independent Organization by Open Philosophy - The evolution of Open Phil. Why should Open Phil split from GiveWell. LLC structure.

Projects Id Like To See by William MacAskill (EA forum) - CEA is giving out £100K grants. General types of applications. EA outreach and Community, Anti-Debates, Prediction Tournaments, Shark Tank Discussions, Research Groups, Specific Skill Building, New Organizations, Writing.

===Politics and Economics:

No Us School Funding Is Actually Somewhat Progressive by Random Critical Analysis - Many people think that wealthy public school districts spend more per pupil. This information is outdated. Within most states spending is higher on disadvantaged students. This is despite the fact that school funding is mostly local. Extremely thorough with loads of graphs.

Build Baby Build by Bryan Caplan - Quote from a paper estimating the high costs of housing restrictions. We should blame the government, especially local government. The top alternate theory is wrong. Which regulations are doing the damage? It's complicated. Functionalists are wrong. State government is our best hope.

Identifying Sources Of Cost Disease by Kurt Spindler - Where is the money going: Administration, Increased Utilization, Decreased Risk Tolerance. What market failures are in effect: Unbounded Domains, Signaling and Competitive Pressure (ex: military spending), R&D doesn't cut costs it creates new ways to spend money, individuals don't pay. Some practical strategies to reduce cost disease.

The Use And Abuse Of Witchdoctors For Life by Lou (sam[]zdat) - Anti-bullet magic and collective self-defense. Cultural evolution. People don't directly believe in anti-bullet magic, they believe in elders and witch doctors. Seeing like a State. Individual psychology is the foundation. Many psychologically important customs couldn't adapt to the marketplace.

Greece Gdp Forecasting by João Eira (Lettuce be Cereal) - Transforming the Data. Evaluating the Model with Exponential Smoothing, Bagged ETS and ARIMA. The regression results and forecast.

Links 9 by Artir (Nintil) - Economics, Psychology, Artificial Intelligence, Philosophy and other links.

Amazon Buying Whole Foods by Tyler Cowen - Quotes from Matt Yglesias, Alex Tabarrock, Ross Douthat and Tyler. “Dow opens down 10 points. Amazon jumps 3% after deal to buy Whole Foods. Walmart slumps 7%, Kroger plunges 16%”

Historical Returns Market Portfolio by Tyler Cowen - From 1960 to 2015 the global market portfolio realized a compounded real return of 4.38% with a std of 11.6%. Investors beat savers by 3.24%. Link to the original paper.

Trust And Diver by Bryan Caplan - Robert Putnam's work is often cited as showing the costs of diversity. However Putnam's work shows the negative effect of diversity on trust is rather modest. On the other hand Putnam found multiple variables that are much more correlated with trust (such as home ownership).

Why Optimism is More Rational than Pessimism by TheMoneyIllusion - Splitting 1900-2017 into Good and Bad periods. We learn something from our mistakes. Huge areas where things have improved long term. Top 25 movies of the 21st Century. Artforms in decline.

Is Economics Science by Noah Smith - No one knows what a Science is. Thoeries that work (4 examples). The empirical and credibility revolutions. Why we still need structural models. Ways economics could be more scientific. Data needs to kill bad theories. Slides from Noah's talk are included and worth playing but assume familiarity with the economics profession.

===Misc:

Clojure Concurrency And Blocking With Coreasync by Eli Bendersky - Concurrent applications and blocking operations using core.async. Most of the article compares threads and go-blocks. Lots of code and well presented test results.

Optopt by Ben Kuhn - Startup options are surprisingly valuable once you factor in that you can quit of the startup does badly. A mathematical model of the value of startup options and the optimal time to quit. The ability to quit rose the option value by over 50%. The sensitivity of the analysis with respect to parameters (opportunity cost, volatility, etc).

Epistemic Spot Check: The Demon Under The Microscope by Aceso Under Glass - Biography of the man who invented sulfa drugs, the early anti-bacteria treatments which were replaced by penicillin. Interesting fact checks of various claims.

Sequential Conversion Rates by Chris Stucchio - Estimating success rates when you have noisy reporting. The article is a sketch of how the author handled such a problem in practice.

Set Theory Problem by protokol2020 - Bring down ZFC. Aleph-zero spheres and Aleph-one circles.

Connectome Specific Harmonic Waves On Lsd by Qualia Computing - Transcript and video of a talk on neuroimaging the brain on LSD. "Today thanks to the recent developments in structural neuroimaging techniques such as diffusion tensor imaging, we can trace the long-distance white matter connections in the brain. These long-distance white matter fibers (as you see in the image) connect distant parts of the brain, distant parts of the cortex."

Approval Maximizing Representations by Paul Christiano - Representing images. Manipulation representations. Iterative and compound encodings. Compressed representations. Putting it all together and bootstrapping reinforcement learning.

Travel by Ben Kuhn - Advice for traveling frequently. Sleeping on the plane and taking redeyes. Be robust. Bring extra clothes, medicine, backup chargers and things to read when delayed. Minimize stress. Buy good luggage and travel bags.

Learning To Cooperate, Compete And Communicate by Open Ai - Competitive multi-agent models are a step towards AGI. An algorithm for centralized learning and decentralized execution in multi-agent environment. Initial Research. Next Steps. Lots of visuals demonstrating the algorithm in practice.

Openai Baselines Dqn by Open Ai - "We’re open-sourcing OpenAI Baselines, our internal effort to reproduce reinforcement learning algorithms with performance on par with published results." Best practices we use for correct RL algorithm implementations. First release: DQN and three of its variants, algorithms developed by DeepMind.

Corrigibility by Paul Christiano - Paul defines the sort of AI he wants to build, he refers to such systems as "corrigible". Paul argues that a sufficiently corrigible agent will become more corrigible over time. This implies that friendly AI is not a narrow target but a broad basin of attraction. Corrigible agents prefer to build other agents that share the overseers preferences, not their own. Predicting that the overseer wants me to turn off when he hits the off-button is not complicated relative to being deceitful. Comparison with Eliezer's views.

G Reliant Skills Seem Most Susceptible To Automation by Freddie deBoer - Computers already outperform humans in g-loaded domains such as Go and Chess. Many g-loaded jobs might get automated. Jobs involving soft or people skills are resilient to automation.

Persona 5: Spoiler Free Review - Persona games are long but deeply worthwhile if you enjoy the gameplay and the story. Persona 5 is much more polished but Persona 3 has a more meaningful story and more interesting decisions. Tips for Maximum Enjoyment of Persona 5. Very few spoilers.

Sea Problem by protokol2020 - A fun problem. Measuring sea level rise.

===Podcast:

83 The Politics Of Emergency by Waking Up with Sam Harris - Fareed Zakaria. "His career as a journalist, Samuel Huntington's "clash of civilizations," political partisanship, Trump, the health of the news media, the connection between Islam and intolerance"

On Risk, Statistics, And Improving The Public Understanding Of Science by 80,000 Hours - A lifetime of communicating science. Early career advice. Getting people to intuitively understand hazards and their effect on life expectancy.

Ed Luce by Tyler Cowen - The Retreat of Western Liberalism "What a future liberalism will look like, to what extent current populism is an Anglo-American phenomenon, Modi’s India, whether Kubrick, Hitchcock, and John Lennon are overrated or underrated, and what it is like to be a speechwriter for Larry Summers."

Thomas Ricks by EconTalk - Thomas Ricks book Churchill and Orwell. Overlapping lives and the fight to preserve individual liberty.

The End Of The World According To Isis by Waking Up with Sam Harris - Graeme Wood. His experience reporting on ISIS, the myth of online recruitment, the theology of ISIS, the quality of their propaganda, the most important American recruit to the organization, the roles of Jesus and the Anti-Christ in Islamic prophecy, free speech and the ongoing threat of jihadism.

Jason Khalipa by Tim Ferriss - "8-time CrossFit Games competitor, a 3-time Team USA CrossFit member, and — among other athletic feats — he has deadlifted 550 pounds, squatted 450 pounds, and performed 64 pullups at a bodyweight of 210 pounds."

Dario Amodei, Paul Christiano & Alex Ray. - 80K hours released a detailed guide to careers in AI policy. " We discuss the main career paths; what to study; where to apply; how to get started; what topics are most in need of research; and what progress has been made in the field so far." Transcript included.

Don Bourdreaux Emergent Order by EconTalk - "Why is it that people in large cities like Paris or New York City people sleep peacefully, unworried about whether there will be enough bread or other necessities available for purchase the next morning? No one is in charge--no bread czar. No flour czar."

Tania Lombrozo On Why We Evolved The Urge To Explain by Rational Speaking - "Research on what purpose explanation serves -- i.e., why it helps us more than our brains just running prediction algorithms. Tania and Julia also discuss whether simple explanations are more likely to be true, and why we're drawn to teleological explanations"

Idea for LessWrong: Video Tutoring

10 adamzerner 23 June 2017 09:40PM

Update 6/28/17: With 14 people currently interested, it does seem that there's enough to get started. However, I'd like to give it a bit more time and see how much overall interest we get.

Idea: we coordinate to teach each other things via video chat.

  • We (mostly) all like learning. Whether it be for fun, curiosity, a stepping stone towards our goals.
  • My intuition is that there's a lot of us who also enjoy teaching. I do, personally.
  • Enjoyment aside, teaching is a good way of solidifying ones knowledge.
  • Perhaps there would be positive unintended consequences. Eg. socially.
  • Why video? a) I assume that medium is better for education than simply text. b) Social and motivational benefits, maybe. A downside to video is that some may find it intimidating.
  • It may be nice to evolve this into a group project where we iteratively figure out how to do a really good job teaching certain topics.
  • I see the main value in personalization, as opposed to passive lectures/seminars. Those already exist, and are plentiful for most topics. What isn't easily accessible is personalization. With that said, I figure it'd make sense to have about 5 learners per teacher.

So, this seems like something that would be mutually beneficial. To get started, we'd need:

  1. A place to do this. No problem: there's Hangouts, Skype, https://talky.io/, etc.
  2. To coordinate topics and times.

Personally, I'm not sure how much I can offer as far as doing the teaching. I worked as a web developer for 1.5 years and have been teaching myself computer science. I could be helpful to those unfamiliar with those fields, but probably not too much help for those already in the field and looking to grow. But I'm interested in learning about lots of things!

Perhaps a good place to start would be to record in some spreadsheet, a) people who want to teach, b) what topics, and c) who is interested in being a Learner. Getting more specific about who wants to learn what may be overkill, as we all seem to have roughly similar interests. Or maybe it isn't.

If you're interested in being a Learner or a Teacher, please add yourself to this spreadsheet.

[Link] The evolution of superstitious and superstition-like behaviour

3 c0rw1n 23 June 2017 04:14PM

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