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Human capital or signaling? No, it's about doing the Right Thing and acquiring karma

10 VipulNaik 20 April 2014 09:04PM

There's a huge debate among economists of education on whether the positive relationship between educational attainment and income is due to human capital, signaling, or ability bias. But what do the students themselves believe? Bryan Caplan has argued that students' actions (for instance, their not sitting in for free on classes and their rejoicing at class cancellation) suggest a belief in the signaling model of education. At the same time, he notes that students may not fully believe the signaling model, and that shifting in the direction of that belief might improve individual educational attainment.

Still, something seems wrong about the view that most people believe in the signaling model of education. While their actions are consistent with that view, I don't think they frame it quite that way. I don't think they usually think of it as "education is useless, but I'll go through it anyway because that allows me to signal to potential employers that I have the necessary intelligence and personality traits to succeed on the job." Instead, I believe that people's model of school education is linked to the idea of karma: they do what the System wants them to do, because that's their duty and the Right Thing to do. Many of them also expect that if they do the Right Thing, and fulfill their duties well, then the System shall reward them with financial security and a rewarding life. Others may take a more fateful stance, saying that it's not up to them to judge what the System has in store for them, but they still need to do the Right Thing.

The case of the devout Christian

Consider a reasonably devout Christian who goes to church regularly. For such a person, going to church, and living a life in accordance with (his understanding of) Christian ethics is part of what he's supposed to do. God will take care of him as long as he does his job well. In the long run, God will reward good behavior and doing the Right Thing, but it's not for him to question God's actions.

Such a person might look bemused if you asked him, "Are you a practicing Christian because you believe in the prudential value of Christian teachings (the "human capital" theory) or because you want to give God the impression that you are worthy of being rewarded (the "signaling" theory")?" Why? Partly, because the person attributes omniscience, omnipotence, and omnibenevolence to God, so that the very idea of having a conceptual distinction between what's right and how to impress God seems wrong. Yes, he does expect that God will take care of him and reward him for his goodness (the "signaling" theory). Yes, he also believes that the Christian teachings are prudent (the "human capital" theory). But to him, these are not separate theories but just parts of the general belief in doing right and letting God take care of the rest.

Surely not all Christians are like this. Some might be extreme signalers: they may be deliberately trying to optimize for (what they believe to be) God's favor and maximizing the probability of making the cut to Heaven. Others might believe truly in the prudence of God's teachings and think that any rewards that flow are because the advice makes sense at the worldly level (in terms of the non-divine consequences of actions) rather than because God is impressed by the signals they're sending him through those actions. There are also a number of devout Christians I personally know who, regardless of their views on the matter, would be happy to entertain, examine, and discuss such hypotheses without feeling bemused. Still, I suspect the majority of Christians don't separate the issue, and many might even be offended at second-guessing God.

Note: I selected Christianity and a male sex just for ease of description; similar ideas apply to other religions and the female sex. Also note that in theory, some religious sects emphasize free will and others emphasize determinism more, but it's not clear to me how much effect this has on people's mental models on the ground.

The schoolhouse as church: why human capital and signaling sound ridiculous

Just as many people believe in following God's path and letting Him take care of the rewards, many people believe that by doing the Right Thing educationally (being a Good Student and jumping through the appropriate hoops through correctly applied sincere effort) they're doing their bit for the System. These people might be bemused at the cynicism involved in separating out "human capital" and "signaling" theories of education.

Again, not everybody is like this. Some people are extreme signalers: they openly claim that school builds no useful skills, but grades are necessary to impress future employers, mates, and society at large. Some are human capital extremists: they openly claim that the main purpose is to acquire a strong foundation of knowledge, and they continue to do so even when the incentive from the perspective of grades is low. Some are consumption extremists: they believe in learning because it's fun and intellectually stimulating. And some strategically combine these approaches. Yet, none of these categories describe most people.

I've had students who worked considerably harder on courses than the bare minimum effort needed to get an A. This is despite the fact that they aren't deeply interested in the subject, don't believe it will be useful in later life, and aren't likely to remember it for too long anyway. I think that the karma explanation fits best: people develop an image of themselves as Good Students who do their duty and fulfill their role in the system. They strive hard to fulfill that image, often going somewhat overboard beyond the bare minimum needed for signaling purposes, while still not trying to learn in ways that optimize for human capital acquisition. There are of course many other people who claim to aspire to the label of Good Student because it's the Right Thing, and consider it a failing of virtue that they don't currently qualify as Good Students. Of course, that's what they say, and social desirability bias might play a role in individuals' statements,  but the very fact that people consider such views socially desirable indicates the strong societal belief in being a Good Student and doing one's academic duty.

If you presented the signaling hypothesis to self-identified Good Students they'd probably be insulted. It's like telling a devout Christian that he's in it only to curry favor with God. At the same time, the human capital hypothesis might also seem ridiculous to them in light of their actual actions and experiences: they know they don't remember or understand the material too well. Thinking of it as doing their bit for the System because it's the Right Thing to do seems both noble and realistic.

The impressive success of this approach

At the individual level, this works! Regardless of the relative roles of human capital, signaling, and ability bias, people who go through higher levels of education and get better grades tend to earn better and get more high-status jobs than others. People who transform themselves from being bad students to good students often see rewards both academically and in later life in the form of better jobs. This could again be human capital, signaling, or ability bias. The ability bias explanation is plausible because it requires a lot of ability to turn from a bad student into a good student, about the same as it does to be a good student from the get-go or perhaps even more because transforming oneself is a difficult task.

Can one do better?

Doing what the System commands can be reasonably satisfying, and even rewarding. But for many people, and particularly for the people who do the most impressive things, it's not necessarily the optimal path. This is because the System isn't designed to maximize every individual's success or life satisfaction, or even to optimize things for society as a whole. It's based on a series of adjustments driven by squabbling between competing interests. It could be a lot worse, but a motivated person could do better.

Also note that being a Good Student is fundamentally different from being a Good Worker. A worker, whether directly serving customers or reporting to a boss, is producing stuff that other people value. So, at least in principle, being a better worker translates to more gains for the customers. This means that a Good Worker is contributing to the System in a literal sense, and by doing a better job, directly adds more value. But this sort of reasoning doesn't apply to Good Students, because the actions of students qua students aren't producing direct value. Their value is largely their consumption value to the students themselves and their instrumental value to the students' current and later life choices.

Many of the qualities that define a Good Student are qualities that are desirable in other contexts as well. In particular, good study habits are valuable not just in school but in any form of research that relies on intellectual comprehension and synthesis (this may be an example of the human capital gains from education, except that I don't think most students acquire good study habits). So, one thing to learn from the Good Student model is good study habits. General traits of conscientiousness, hardwork, and willingness to work beyond the bare minimum needed for signaling purposes are also valuable to learn and practice.

But the Good Student model breaks down when it comes to acquiring perspective about how to prioritize between different subjects, and how to actually learn and do things of direct value. A common example is perfectionism. The Good Student may spend hours practicing calculus to get a perfect score in the test, far beyond what's necessary to get an A in the class or an AP BC 5, and yet not acquire a conceptual understanding of calculus or learn calculus in a way that would stick. Such a student has acquired a lot of karma, but has failed from both the human capital perspective (in not acquiring durable human capital) and the signaling perspective (in spending more effort than is needed for the signal). In an ideal world, material would be taught in a way that one can score highly on tests if and only if it serves useful human capital or signaling functions, but this is often not the case.

Thus, I believe it makes sense to critically examine the activities one is pursuing as a student, and ask: "does this serve a useful purpose for me?" The purpose could be human capital. signaling, pure consumption, or something else (such as networking). Consider the following four extreme answers a student may give to why a particular high school or college course matters:

  • Pure signaling: A follow-up might be: "how much effort would I need to put in to get a good return on investment as far as the signaling benefits go?" And then one has to stop at that level, rather than overshoot or undershoot.
  • Pure human capital: A follow-up might be: "how do I learn to maximize the long-term human capital acquired and retained?" In this world, test performance matters only as feedback rather than as the ultimate goal of one's actions. Rather than trying to practice for hours on end to get a perfect score on a test, more effort will go into learning in ways that increase the probability of long-term retention in ways that are likely to prove useful later on. (As mentioned above, in an ideal world, these goals would converge).
  • Pure consumption: A follow-up might be: "how much effort should I put in in order to get the maximum enjoyment and stimulation (or other forms of consumptive experience), without feeling stressed or burdened by the material?"
  • Pure networking: A follow-up might be: "how do I optimize my course experience to maximize the extent to which I'm able to network with fellow students and instructors?"

One might also believe that some combination of these explanations applies. For instance, a mixed human capital-cum-signaling explanation might recommend that one study all topics well enough to get an A, and then concentrate on acquiring a durable understanding of the few subtopics that one believes are needed for long-term knowledge and skills. For instance, a mastery of fractions matters a lot more than a mastery of quadratic equations, so a student preparing for a middle school or high school algebra course might choose to learn both at a basic level but get a really deep understanding of fractions. Similarly, in calculus, having a clear idea of what a function and derivative means matters a lot more than knowing how to differentiate trigonometric functions, so a student may superficially understand all aspects (to get the signaling benefits of a good grade) but dig deep into the concept of functions and the conceptual definition of derivatives (to acquire useful human capital). By thinking clearly about this, one may realize that perfecting one's ability to differentiate complicated trigonometric function expressions or integrate complicated rational functions may not be valuable from either a human capital perspective or a signaling perspective.

Ultimately, the changes wrought by consciously thinking about these issues are not too dramatic. Even though the System is suboptimal, it's locally optimal in small ways and one is constrained in one's actions in any case. But the changes can nevertheless add up to lead one to be more strategic and less stressed, do better on all fronts (human capital, signaling, and consumption), and discover opportunities one might otherwise have missed.

LSD, Meditation, Enlightenment, and Ego Death

4 Fink 20 April 2014 07:41PM

A little background information first, I'm a computer science/neuroscience dual-major in my junior year of university. AGI is what I really want to work on and I'm especially interested in Gortzel's OpenCog. Unfortunately I do not have nearly the understanding of the human mind I would like, let alone the knowledge of how to make a new one.

DavidM's post on meditation is particularly interesting to me. I've been practicing mindfulness-based meditation techniques for some time now and I've seen some solid results but the concept of 'enlightenment' was always appealing to me, and I've always wanted to know if such a thing existed. I have been practicing his technique for a few weeks now and although it is difficult I believe I understand what he means by 'vibrations' in your attentional focus.

I've experimented with psilocybin mushrooms for about a year now. Mostly for fun, sometimes for better understanding my own brain. Light doses have enhanced my perception and led me to re-evaluate my life from a different perspective, although I am never as clear-headed as I would like.

I've read that LSD provides a 'cleaner' experience while avoiding some of the thought-loops of mushrooms, it also lasts much longer. Stanislav Grof once said that LSD can be to psychology what the microscope is to biology, with deep introspection we can view our thoughts coalesce. After months of looking for a reliable producer and several 'look-alike' drugs I finally obtained a few doses of LSD. Satisfied that it was the real thing I took a single dose and fell into my standard meditation session, trying to keep my concentration on the breath.

I experienced what wikipedia calls 'ego death'. That is I felt my 'self' splitting into the individual sub-components that formed consciousness. Acid is well-known for causing synaesthesia and as I fell deeper into meditation I felt like I could actually see the way sensory experiences interacted with cognitive heuristics and rose to the level of conscious perception. I felt that I could what see 'I' really was, what Douglas Hofstadter referred to as a 'strange loop' looking back on itself, with my perception switching between sensory input, memories, and thought patterns resonating in frequency with DavidM's 'vibrations'. Of course I was under the effects of an hallucinogenic drug, but I felt my experience was quite lucid.

DavidM hasn't posted in years which is a shame because I really want to see his third article and ask him more about it. I will continue practicing his enlightenment meditation techniques in an attempt to try to foster these experiences without the use of drugs. Has anyone here had experiences with psychedelic drugs or transcendental meditation? If so, could you tell me about them?

Utilitarian discernment bleg

1 VipulNaik 20 April 2014 11:33PM

People who're engaging in learning partly or wholly for the explicit purpose of human capital need to be strategic about their learning choices. Only some subjects develop human capital useful to the person's goals. Within each subject, only some subtopics develop useful human capital. Even within a particular course, the material covered in some weeks could be highly relevant, and the material covered in other weeks need to be relevant. Therefore, learners need to be discerning in figuring out what material to focus their learning effort on and what material to just skim, or even ignore.

Such discernment is most relevant for self-learners who are unconstrained by formal mastery requirements of courses. Self-learners may of course be motivated by many concerns other than human capital acquisition. In particular, they may be learning for pure consumptive reasons, or to signal their smarts to friends. But at any rate, they have more flexibility than people in courses and therefore they can gain more from better discernment.

Those who're taking courses primarily for signaling purposes need to acquire sufficient mastery to attain their desired grade, but even here, they have considerable flexibility:

  • People who're already able to get the top grade without stretching themselves too much have flexibility in how to allocate additional time. Should they try to acquire some more mastery of the entire curriculum, or delve deeper into one topic?
  • People who're far from getting a top grade may have the same grade-per-unit-effort payoff from delving deep into one subtopic or acquiring a shallow understanding of many topics. Considerations regarding long-term human capital acquisition can then help them decide what path to pursue among paths that confer roughly similar signaling benefits.

What self-learners and people with some flexibility in a formal learning situation need is what I call utilitarian discernment: the ability to figure out what stuff to concentrate on. Ideally, they should be able to figure this out relatively easily:

  1. Sequencing within the course: Important topics are often foundational and therefore done early on.
  2. Relative time and emphasis placed on topics should give an indicator of their relative importance.
  3. Important topics should be explicitly marked as important by course texts, videos, and syllabi.
  4. Important topics should receive more emphasis in end-of-course assessments.
  5. Important topics should be more frequently listed as prerequisites in follow-on courses covering the sort of material the learner wants to do next.
  6. The learner can consult friends and websites: This includes more advanced students and subject matter experts, as well as online sources such as Quora and Less Wrong.

The above work better than nothing, but I think they still leave a lot to be desired. Some obvious pitfalls:

  1. Sequencing within the course: While important topics are often done early on because they are foundational, they are sometimes done later because they rely on a synthesis of other knowledge.
  2. Relative time and emphasis: Often, courses place more time and emphasis on more difficult topics than more important ones. There's also the element of time and emphasis being placed on topics that subject matter experts find interesting or relevant, rather than topics that are relevant to somebody who does not intend to pursue a lifetime of research in the subject but is learning it to apply it in other subjects. Note also that the signaling story would suggest that more time and emphasis would be given to topics that do a better job at sorting and ranking students' relevant general abilities than to topics that teach relevant knowledge and skills.
  3. Important topics marked as important: This is often the case, but it too fails, because what is important to teachers may differ from what is important to students.
  4. Emphasis in end-of-course assessments: The relative weight to topics in end-of-course assessments is often in proportion to the time spent on the topics than their relative importance, bringing us back to (1).
  5. Important topics should be more frequently listed as prerequisites: This would work well if somebody actually compiled and combined prerequisites for all follow-on courses, but this is a labor-intensive exercise that few people have engaged in.
  6. The learner can consult friends and websites: Friends who lack strong subject matter knowledge may simply be guessing or giving too much weight to their personal beliefs and experiences. Many of them may not even remember the material enough to offer an informed judgment. Those who have subject matter knowledge may be too focused on academic relevance within the subject rather than real-world relevance outside it. People may also be biased (in either direction) about how a particular topic taught them general analytical skills because they fail to consider other counterfactual topics that could have achieved a similar effect.

In light of these pitfalls, I'm interested in developing general guidelines for improving one's utilitarian discernment. For this purpose, I list some example head-to-head contest questions. I'd like it if commenters indicated a clear choice of winner for each head-to-head contest (you don't have to indicate a choice of winner for every one, but I would prefer a clear choice rather than lots of branch cases within each contest), then explained their reasoning and how somebody without an inside view or relevant expertise could have come to the same conclusion. For some of the choices I've listed, I think the winner should be clear, whereas for others, the contest is closer. Note that the numbering in this list is independent of the preceding numbering.

  1. Middle school and high school mathematics: Manipulating fractions (basic arithmetic operations on fractions) versus solving quadratic equations (you may assume that the treatment of quadratic equations does not require detailed knowledge of fractions)
  2. High school physics: Classical mechanics versus geometrical optics
  3. Precalculus/functions: Logarithmic and exponential functions versus trigonometric functions
  4. Differential calculus: Conceptual definition of derivative as a limit of a difference quotient versus differentiation of trigonometric functions
  5. Integral calculus and applications: Integration of rational functions versus solution strategy for separable differential equations
  6. Physical chemistry: Stoichiometry versus chemical kinetics
  7. Basic biology: Cell biology versus plant taxonomy
  8. Micreconomics: Supply and demand curves versus adverse selection

PS: The examples chosen here are all standard topics in the sciences and social sciences ranging from middle school to early college, but my question is more general. I didn't have enough domain knowledge to come up with quick examples of self-learning head-to-head contests for other domains or for learning at other stages of life, but feel free to discuss these in the comments.

Southern California FAI Workshop

11 Coscott 20 April 2014 08:55AM

This Saturday, April 26th, we will be holding a one day FAI workshop in southern California, modeled after MIRI's FAI workshops. We are a group of individuals who, aside from attending some past MIRI workshops, are in no way affiliated with the MIRI organization. More specifically, we are a subset of the existing Los Angeles Less Wrong meetup group that has decided to start working on FAI research together. 

The event will start at 10:00 AM, and the location will be:

USC Institute for Creative Technologies
12015 Waterfront Drive
Playa Vista, CA 90094-2536.

This first workshop will be open to anyone who would like to join us. If you are interested, please let us know in the comments or by private message. We plan to have more of these in the future, so if you are interested but unable to makethis event, please also let us know. You are welcome to decide to join at the last minute. If you do, still comment here, so we can give you necessary phone numbers.

Our hope is to produce results that will be helpful for MIRI, and so we are starting off by going through the MIRI workshop publications. If you will be joining us, it would be nice if you read the papers linked to here, here, here, here, and here before Saturday. Reading all of these papers is not necessary, but it would be nice if you take a look at one or two of them to get an idea of what we will be doing.

Experience in artificial intelligence will not be at all necessary, but experience in mathematics probably is. If you can follow the MIRI publications, you should be fine. Even if you are under-qualified, there is very little risk of holding anyone back or otherwise having a negative impact on the workshop. If you think you would enjoy the experience, go ahead and join us.

This event will be in the spirit of collaboration with MIRI, and will attempt to respect their guidelines on doing research that will decrease, rather than increase, existential risk. As such, practical implementation questions related to making an approximate Bayesian reasoner fast enough to operate in the real world will not be on-topic. Rather, the focus will be on the abstract mathematical design of a system capable of having reflexively consistent goals, preforming naturalistic induction, et cetera. 

Food and refreshments will be provided for this event, courtesy of MIRI.

Regret, Hindsight Bias and First-Person Experience

7 Stabilizer 20 April 2014 02:10AM

Here is an experience that I often have: I'm walking down the street, perfectly content and all of a sudden some memory pops into my stream of consciousness. The memory triggers some past circumstance where I did not act completely admirably. Immediately following this, there is often regret. Regret of the form like: "I should've studied harder for that class", "I should've researched my options better before choosing my college", "I should've asked that girl out", "I shouldn't have been such an asshole to her" and so on. So this is regret which is of the kind: "Well, of course, I should've done X. But I did Y. And now here I am."

This is classic hindsight bias. Looking back into the past, it seems clear what my course of action should've been. But it wasn't at all that clear in the past.

So, I've come up with a technique to attenuate this kind of hindsight-bias driven regret.

First of all, tune in to your current experience. What is it like to be here, right here and right now, doing the things you're doing. Start zooming out: think about the future and what you're going to be doing tomorrow, next week, next month, next year, 5 years later. Is it at all clear what choices you should make? Sure, you have some hints: take care of your health, save money, maybe work harder at your job. But nothing very specific. Tune in to the difficulties of carrying out even definitely good things. You told yourself that you'd definitely go running today, but you didn't. In first-person mode, it is really hard to know what do, to know how to do it and to actually do it. 

Now, think back to the person you were in the past, when you made the choices that you're regretting. Try to imagine the particular place and time when you made that choice. Try to feel into what it was like. Try to color in the details: the ambient lighting of the room, the clothes you and others were wearing, the sounds and the smells. Try to feel into what was going on in your mind. Usually it turns out that you were confused and pulled in many different directions and, all said and done, you had to make a choice and you made one.

Now realize that back then you were facing exactly the kinds of uncertainties and confusions you are feeling now. In the first-person view there are no certainties; there are only half-baked ideas, hunches, gut feelings, mish-mash theories floating in your head, fragments of things you read and heard in different places.

Now think back to the regrettable decision you made. Is it fair to hold that decision against yourself which such moral force? 

Meetup : Utrecht

1 SoerenMind 20 April 2014 10:14AM

Discussion article for the meetup : Utrecht

WHEN: 03 May 2014 05:00:00PM (+0200)

WHERE: Utrecht

A growing number of rationalists and effective altruists is joining us to share ideas and help each other to be rational, to improve themselves and to make the world a better place as effectively as possible.

Agenda

The full agenda is to be determined later, but at least we will talk about the charity evaluator GiveWell (http://www.givewell.org/). GiveWell is looking for outstanding giving opportunities: where to give in order to do the most good per dollar or euro spent. How could that be possible? How does GiveWell (try to) do that? If there is another topic you would like to present or discuss with the group, please add the topic here: https://docs.google.com/document/d/16bBtla1iVzkJjie-JK7Ozb9Ao8SbyJ9U924XyaEXTqY/edit . There is room for your questions, personal discussions, smalltalk, etc.

Everyone is invited, and new people will be warmly welcomed! Location is to be determined, probably Utrecht.

If you have troule finding us, for this time you can reach Imma at 0612001233, since I will be abroad.

Discussion article for the meetup : Utrecht

Economics majors and earnings: further exploration

3 JonahSinick 20 April 2014 03:15AM

In Earnings of economics majors: general considerations I presented data showing that economics majors make substantially more money (20%-50%+) than majors in other liberal arts. I gave five hypotheses, each of which could partially account for the wage gap. These are possible differences between the majors in:

  1. Human capital acquisition.
  2. Acquisition of a desire to make money.
  3. Pre-existing ability as measured by tests.
  4. Pre-existing desire to make money.
  5. Signaling.

I discussed a priori reasons for believing that they might be significant, and how one might go about testing the hypotheses and the extent to which they explain the wage gap.

Having examined available data, I believe that with the possible exception of #3, based on publicly available information, there's a huge amount of uncertainty as to the roles of these factors in explaining the wage gap. In many cases there is data suggesting the presence of effects, but the data is not robust and the sizes of the effects are entirely unclear. Furthermore, the hypotheses are not exhaustive: other factors (such as those mentioned at the very end of this post) plausibly play a role, making it difficult to reason in the fashion "factors A, B and C play very small roles, therefore factor D must play a large role." 

I was originally hoping that there would be a simple, clearcut case for or against majoring in economics increasing earnings (relative to other liberal arts), but resolving the question would seem to be a major research project. Still, I hope that this post can help students who are contemplating majoring in economics or another liberal art get a feel for the "lay of the land," and some of the points therein may be actionable for particular individuals. 

I'll address each hypothesis in turn.

This post is very long. If you're short on time or attention, consider scanning over the subtopic headings and reading the sections that look most interesting. As usual, I'd appreciate any relevant thoughts, particularly if you're a former economics major.

continue reading »

Mathematics and saving lives

2 NancyLebovitz 19 April 2014 01:32PM

A high school student with an interest in math asks whether he's obligated on utilitarian grounds to become a doctor.

The commenters pretty much say that he isn't, but now I'm wondering-- if you go into reasonably pure math, what areas or specific problems would be most likely to contribute the most towards saving lives?

New LW Meetup: Christchurch NZ

1 FrankAdamek 19 April 2014 01:57AM

[LINK] U.S. Views of Technology and the Future

2 Gunnar_Zarncke 18 April 2014 09:22PM

I just found this on slashdot:

"U.S. Views of Technology and the Future - Science in the next 50 years" by the Pew Research Center

This report emerges from the Pew Research Center’s efforts to understand public attitudes about a variety of scientific and technological changes being discussed today. The time horizons of these technological advances span from today’s realities—for instance, the growing prevalence of drones—to more speculative matters such as the possibility of human control of the weather. 

This is interesting esp. in comparison to the recent posts on forecasting which focussed on expert forecasts.

What I found most notable was the public opinion on their use of future technology:

% who would do the following if possible...

50% ride in a driverless car

26% use brain implant to improve memory or mental capacity

20% eat meat grown in a lab

Don't they know Eutopia is Scary? I'd guess if these technologies really become available and are reliable only the elderly will be inable to overcome their preconceptions. And everybody will eat artificial meat if it is cheaper, more healthy and tastes the same (and the testers say confirm this).

 

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