Rate how much each intervention (or decision not to intervene) helped or hurt the situation, in retrospect, on a >scale from -10 to +10.
How do you plan to do this without counterfactual knowledge?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quasi-experiment
take your pick
it requires a good handle of experiment design but biostatisticians do this day in day out. Hopefully risk analysts do this too in defense institutions.
Another month, another rationality quotes thread. The rules are: