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Rationality Quotes July 2016
Another month, another rationality quotes thread. The rules are:
- Provide sufficient information (URL, title, date, page number, etc.) to enable a reader to find the place where you read the quote, or its original source if available. Do not quote with only a name.
- Post all quotes separately, so that they can be upvoted or downvoted separately. (If they are strongly related, reply to your own comments. If strongly ordered, then go ahead and post them together.)
- Do not quote yourself.
- Do not quote from Less Wrong itself, HPMoR, Eliezer Yudkowsky, or Robin Hanson. If you'd like to revive an old quote from one of those sources, please do so here.
- No more than 5 quotes per person per monthly thread, please.
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Comments (21)
Allegedly overheard.
Robert Evans, Cracked
Related: Stranger Than History.
I'm not sure what the lesson is here. A sane forecaster could never have been accurate? That seems like it would need some justification.
A simple justification of a slightly less extreme position is easy enough: there were many sane people who did not predict the value of the internet, indicating that being sane and smart are not sufficient to predict such things.
There are plenty of quotes from people who were supposed to be experts (or at least well-educated) saything that heavier than air flight was impossible, computers would always be room-sized monstrosities of limited use, etc. I assume that this quote is pretty much the same idea (that future technology is unpredictable), but using a technology that is 1. more recent, and thus more relatable, and 2. not simply a matter of technology, but of adapted use; that is, most smart people might have guessed that the early internet could be made faster, webpages better, and the network more comprehensive. They simply didn't see the value that this would produce, and so assumed that technology would not move in that direction.
"Being sane and smart are not sufficient" is very different from "being insane is necessary".
Compare: "they didn't think heavier-than-air flight was possible - because they weren't fucking insane".
Source, since you didn't link it.
Downvoted for failure to provide the source.
From the bullet at the end, I guess he tried to link it but got the Markdown wrong.
There's an edit button. It doesn't take that much work to fix formatting.
Dude seems to be bending over backwards to avoid the obvious conclusion. Whiplash is a scam, just a lie folks tell to try and get settlements.
It's just on story of many that fits into the same explanation. Explaining the story isn't the core motivation of his theory.
A pop-happiness tip that appeared on the front page of Reddit:
Never respond to an angry person with a fiery comeback, even if he/she deserves it, don't allow their anger to become your anger..
How about "You're so cute when you're angry."?
-It is better to offer no excuse than a bad one.
George Washington, letter to his niece Harriet Washington, October 30, 1791 First president of US (1732 - 1799)
There are studies about skipping lines in supermarkets that suggest that giving a bad excuse to skip the line quite often results in the person allowing you to skip a line while giving no excuse doesn't.
Contradicts "leave a retreat" - offering someone a bad excuse to get out of a situation "You're late. Was it traffic again?" might work better for the current situation than demanding why they are late.
But in politics it might make sense.
I don't think it is a contradiction. You can think excusing oneself is a weak move while giving other people the chance to do it. I don't smoke, but I'd sell cigarettes.
Our Brand is Crisis - a movie about political campaign management
Our Brand is Crisis - a movie about political campaign management
So, in context this is someone trying to diffuse a dangerous situation with placating lies. How is this rationality?