TL;DR: Many models of the future exist. Several are relevant. Hyperbolic model is strongest, but too strange.
Our need: correct model of the future
Different people: different models = no communication.
Assumptions:
Model of the future = main driving force of historical process + graphic of changes
Model of the future determines global risks
The map: lists all main future models.
Structure: from fast growth – to slow growth models.
Pfd: http://immortality-roadmap.com/futuremodelseng.pdf
Yeah; don't underestimate slow but exponential growth, I would say that 3% a year growth is what really started at the start of the industrial revolution and why we've gotten as far as we have.
Personally I expect overall civilization wide exponential growth at some intermediate level for the next few decades faster than 3% but slower then Moore's law. Lot of uncertainty in there of course.