TL;DR: Many models of the future exist. Several are relevant. Hyperbolic model is strongest, but too strange.
Our need: correct model of the future
Different people: different models = no communication.
Assumptions:
Model of the future = main driving force of historical process + graphic of changes
Model of the future determines global risks
The map: lists all main future models.
Structure: from fast growth – to slow growth models.
Pfd: http://immortality-roadmap.com/futuremodelseng.pdf
Is that P(x| NOT human extinction) = ?? or just P(NOT human extinction) = ??
Because the second case seems contradictory to me.
Unpredictability conditional on NOT human extinction.