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saturn comments on Human inability to assign numerical probabilities - Less Wrong Discussion
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Comments (15)
First, I find it helpful to reframe questions in a way that reminds me to consider what I think I know and how I think I know it. "I think the Republicans will take over the House; what is the probability that my prediction will be wrong?"
Second, when assigning a number to an intuitive judgment, keep in mind that you should be indifferent about taking a small-stakes bet at the odds you chose.