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Matt_Simpson comments on Human inability to assign numerical probabilities - Less Wrong Discussion
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For any given state of information there is a true probability that any given hypothesis is true. Why can't we view people as just estimating this probability when they something like "the probability of the Democratic party keeping control of the House next election is somewhere between 25% and 40%?" Saying an exact number sounds like you have a great deal of precision in your estimate when in general you don't.