You're looking at Less Wrong's discussion board. This includes all posts, including those that haven't been promoted to the front page yet. For more information, see About Less Wrong.

sfb comments on Human inability to assign numerical probabilities - Less Wrong Discussion

2 Post author: AlexMennen 30 September 2010 04:42AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Article Navigation

Comments (15)

Comments (15)

You are viewing a single comment's thread.

Comment author: sfb 01 October 2010 10:03:16PM 0 points [-]

However, we also get uncomfortable when forced to make important decisions on limited information, which would be evidence against this.

You get uncomfortable when forced to make important decisions on limited information, that doesn't mean everybody does.

After pressing myself, I managed to say that the probability of the Democratic party keeping control of the House next election is somewhere between 25% and 40%.

What do you mean by this (apart from that you think it more likely they will lose than that they will win)? If the election was run twice over two days and the same people voted, their vote should stay the same both days, so it's not "this election run a hundred times would lead to a win 25-40 times".

Where is your uncertainty? The probability of ... what, specifically?

Powered by Reddit Powered by Reddit