Concerning "predict(ing) future success of high school students in research mathematicians by spending a few hours talking": From my experience by private tutoring a wide variety of (university and other) students is that one develops an intuitive sensitivity for that. I wonder if others experience that too as quite unpleaseant: one has the feeling of an inappropriate intrusion into the personality of others, a violation of privacy, and because such intuitive guess comes very quickly, one feels to be very unjust. The obvious cause is that the human mind is less complex than usually estimated.
As I mentioned in Fields Medalists on School Mathematics, school mathematics usually gives a heavily distorted picture of mathematical practice. It's common for bright young people to participate in math competitions, an activity which is closer to that of mathematical practice. Unfortunately, while math competitions may be more representative of mathematical practice than school mathematics, math competitions are themselves greatly misleading. Furthermore, they've become tied to a misleading mythological conception of "genius." I've collected relevant quotations below.
Acknowledgment - I obtained some of these quotations from a collection of mathematician quotations compiled by my colleague Laurens Gunnarsen.
In a 2003 interview, Fields Medalist Terence Tao answered the question
by saying
In The Case against the Mathematical Tripos mathematician GH Hardy wrote
In The Map of My Life mathematician Goro Shimura wrote of his experience teaching at a cram school
In his lecture at the 2001 International Mathematics Olympiad, Andrew Wiles gave further description of how math competitions are unrepresentative of mathematical practice
In his Mathematical Education essay, Fields Medalist William Thurston said
In his book Mathematics: A Very Short Introduction, Fields Medalist Timothy Gowers writes
In Does one have to be a genius to do maths? Terence Tao concurs with Gowers and expands on the same theme.
Fields Medalist Alexander Grothendieck describes his own relevant experience in Récoltes et Semailles