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orangecat comments on Draft: Reasons to Use Informal Probabilities - Less Wrong Discussion

9 Post author: jimrandomh 11 October 2010 10:50PM

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Comment author: orangecat 12 October 2010 06:08:12AM *  0 points [-]
  1. 0.2 (I recall reading that white is the most common color, and I do see a bunch).
  2. 0.2 * (p(10 year old Ford)=~0.001) * (p(dent on rear right|10 year old Ford)=~0.01) =~ 2e-6, or 1 in 500,000.
  3. Average person averages one 10-mile trip per day and gets into an accident once every 10-20 years. ~1 in 5000.
  4. 2/3, heavily dependent on definition of building
  5. 0.2
  6. Average 1 typo per 10 books, 100k words/book, so 1 in a million.
  7. Probability that I'll perceive it, 10^-20. Probability of it actually happening, around 10^-(10^100)
  8. Seems like several standard deviations above average, maybe 1 in 1,000.
  9. Not divisible by 2 or 3, if I had written this post I'd flip a coin to decide whether to use a prime or plausible imposter, so 0.5.
Comment author: CarlShulman 12 October 2010 02:23:02PM *  3 points [-]

Re #7, its past use as a discussion tool makes it more likely that people will create/simulate such situations as a joke in the future. The probability of "actually happening" thus seems far too low.

Comment author: sixes_and_sevens 12 October 2010 10:03:08AM 1 point [-]

6.Average 1 typo per 10 books, 100k words/book, so 1 in a million.

You have a very high opinion of proof readers :-)

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