steven0461 comments on A Fundamental Question of Group Rationality - Less Wrong Discussion
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Ruling out a large class of predictable answers is part of it, but it's also arguably more a case of "impressions don't point anywhere" than "impressions point the other way". If challenged on that point I'd have to think about whether I could make it more precisely, but I was kind of hoping people would intuitively agree about the spirit of the question (which is why I didn't include the second paragraph at first).