The difficulty of figuring out whether or not a given war is just doesn't reside in "probabilistic" uncertainty (is there a good term for this), but in uncertainty about what exactly is meant by a "just war".
Those are two very different kinds of uncertainty. Probability theory only helps us for the first.
Could you use Bayes Theorem to figure out whether or not a given war is just?
If so, I was wondering how one would go about estimating the prior probability that a war is just.
Thanks for any help you can offer.