FYI, you can reply to a specific comment, rather than just adding a new comment to the post. (Emile won't have gotten this comment in his inbox.)

But you haven't answered his concern. To assign probabilities, you need to be able to assign values to the various wrongs done by countries--at least relative values--and there is no agreement about even the relative value of wrongs. Never mind that different people have different ideas about what's wrong at all, in most cases.