There is at least one part which might be interestingly subject to Bayesian analysis: "Arms may not be used in a futile cause or in a case where disproportionate measures are required to achieve success".
More generally, a utilitarian analysis of how to tell whether a war is worth fighting could be very valuable.
Could you use Bayes Theorem to figure out whether or not a given war is just?
If so, I was wondering how one would go about estimating the prior probability that a war is just.
Thanks for any help you can offer.