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mwaser comments on Yet Another "Rational Approach To Morality & Friendly AI Sequence" - Less Wrong Discussion
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The original statement said nothing about how much work each step was. In fact, the original statement was refuting a statement that was even more simplistic and strongly implied the process was limited to just data and conclusions.
I agree with your second sentence.
Strictly speaking, if the data clearly supports a conclusion, why does it matter whether you predicted the conclusion or not? Assuming your goal was to learn about the data/conclusion, not to assess your own predictive power.