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Kaj_Sotala comments on Spring 1912: A New Heaven And A New Earth - Less Wrong Discussion
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Italy builds in Venice, moves the new unit to Tyrolia the same spring that Munich is recaptured. The Italian unit retreats to Bohemia, and Italy now has two units bordering Munich. Preventing Italy from recapturing Munich in fall ties up two German units and bogs down the French campaign.
Austrian assistance could help avoid this, of course. But that assumes no secret alliances between Italy and Austria.
This assumes Italy wants Munich enough to commit two units long term to a plan that still doesn't gain them the city (which would better be interpreted as having some reason to want to bog you down). If they wanted it that much, they could just move Tyr -> Boh and Ven -> Tyr next turn (this being in the counterfactual you assumed where they would have one build next year). So if Italy really wants to set up an annoying stalemate around Munich, they can do so whether or not you defend it this turn.
That's true.
Also, Italy declared (both in public and in a private message) that he was going to invade Munich, so the chances of an invasion seemed higher than just 1/3.