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Strange7 comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 6 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Is Dumbledore obsessed with manipulating dramatic archetypes because he figured out that he's actually living in a work of fiction?
If so, wouldn't he be less worried about doing things the LotR way? After all, if he's fictional, the author will most likely make it work out regardless. Not that the whole concept really makes much sense - a fictional character can only "realize" precisely what the author wants them to, anyway.
In this case, the author wants him to realize as much as a smart-but-not-strictly-rational person possibly could after more than a hundred years of dedicated research into the nature of reality.