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TobyBartels comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 6 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Good point! Since Harry's ruse seems to have succeeded, this looks like an oversight on Eliezer's part.
Which reminds me: While this cypher may be the kid-brother type, it used to be the major-governments type. So for unEnlightened Wizards, maybe it still is enough to fool major governments!
In Order of the Phoenix, Sirius Black seems to know that codes exist, at least. Although he dismisses them as "breakable" and decides to communicate over a floo network connection instead (which makes me wonder if wizards know about one-time pads, and if there are any spells which can break them).
Given that the magical community didn't seem to get into mathematics much, and provably strong crypto needs a ton of math, I could see how they never went beyond Caesar Ciphers.