gwern comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 6 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Well. That settles it for me - Quirrel is based off Robin Hanson.
EDIT: It saddens me a little that this is my most-upvoted comment ever.
And Mad Eye is Bruce Schneier.
Is he really? I've read Schneier for years and I don't get any vibes off Moody. For example, Moody espouses all sorts of complicated theories which are the sort of 'movie plots' that Schneier derides.
If anyone, I think Mad Eye is James Jesus Angleton, or possibly Moody is an 'anti-Schneier'. (Personally, I think Eliezer is simply exaggerating Moody in the spirit of I'll-show-you-true-constant-vigilance!)
Because Moody wonders whether the Muggles are just pretending to have wards - that's a Schneierism.
cargo-cult fencing
Well, what would Schiner be like with the Eye of Vance? When you can easily protect yourself from non-movie-plot problems through magic coupled with amazing situational awareness, the movie-plot problems get to be what's left (not to mention that the wizarding world seems to breed movie-plot villians).
Man, this just makes the fanfic-as-idealized-autobiography bells go off in my head even more.
(Also, I totally sympathize on the most-upvoted sadness.)
You hit the nail on the head when you describe the story as "idealized autobiography," but I think it makes sense for one's most important ideological frenemies (Hanson) to end up getting represented in a satire chiefly about ideology.
I've been getting this impression, too; there have been several occasions where Quirrell has advocated something very close to Hanson's signaling theory of human behavior.