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mkehrt comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 6 - Less Wrong Discussion
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rot13ed because I am convinced I am correct and so this counts as a spoiler ;-)
It's pretty obvious to me that Santa Claus is fvevhf oynpx, nffhzvat gung "v'z abg frevbhf" zrnaf ur vfa'g va nmxnona.
Has this been discussed? It seems to fit, especially given the way things worked out in canon.
Ch. 61:
I can't believe we all glazed over this one. I only know because a TVTroper noticed in the thread. And Eliezer posted in that thread shortly thereafter and made no comment on it.
Yes, it's possible that McGonagall is just assuming, or that Dumbledore lied to her. But still.
I glazed over it because I always assumed that Dumbledore had given Harry the cloak; he had it in his possession in canon, after all, and there's no reason that he shouldn't have had it in MoR just because nobody's an idiotic fool (which as I see it is MoR's main departure from canon).
So when I read that, I forgot that it was supposed to be a mystery.
I do think that Dumbledore was the one that gave him the cloak.
However, McGonagall was shocked that he had -an- Invisibility Cloak, not -the- Invisibility Cloak. If she knew that Dumbledore had the Potter's cloak (assuming same as canon), then the odds of Harry getting a completely different cloak would be low enough that she could assume that Dumbledore gave Harry part of his inheritance.
I think that she just made an assumption, considering it very unlikely that he got it any other way since his access to the family vault is limited.
An undiscussed alternative, of course, is dhveery. He probably was able to pick up the Cloak, and has a strong incentive to port Harry someplace special if Harry cracks.
My personal guess is Lupin, though. I think the Black/Pettigrew story is wrapped up in MoR with one of them dead and the other in Azkaban, but Lupin has the connections and freedom and desire.
It makes the most sense to me too, but it certainly doesn't have to be true.
How about Gilderoy Lockhart or Horace Slughorn, cynically trying to curry favor with the Boy-Who-Lived? Maybe he sends presents (through a corrupt House Elf?) to all the promising students in Hogwarts.
I don't think any version of Lockhart even remotely similar to the original would be psychologically capable of doing something good for someone without mentioning his name.
Where on earth would either have gotten the True Cloak of Invisibility? The first note suggests that Santa Claus knows James Potter well and is trusted by him, assuming that the note is telling the truth and Santa did not just steal the cloak from James. That fits Serius or Lupin, or perhaps Pettigrew if he's still alive in MoR.
(Has the guilt/innocence of the Marauders changed from canon? Other things of equal backstory significance have, so I'm uncomfortable just assuming that Pettigrew is guilty.)
Just to reiterate, I really do think it's Sirius! But, devil's advocate.
Slughorn was on good terms with Lily. If he were researching the Deathly Hallows, he'd have an in.
Lockhart may have already been a celebrity. Maybe he wrote a book about going on a quest through darkest New Jersey for the Resurrection Stone, and James was foolish enough to send him the Cloak for analysis. Lockhart is trying to cozy up to Harry anonymously so that, should he end up stealing his identity, there won't be a paper trail.
The last seems unlikely. Lockhart doesn't do anonymous. And he doesn't do restrained.
We don't know what he's like when he's stalking his prey. The guy is basically a serial killer who targets powerful wizards--even with Memory Charms, you can't pull that off without some level of restraint.
Now, I want MoR to do Lockhart! Let's see how this guy really operates.
discussed here (tvtropes)