HonoreDB comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 6 - Less Wrong Discussion
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To these three, the animagus potion is such a blatant Voldemort calling-card that it screens off Harry's involvement. Not only that, they simply haven't thought of the idea that Voldemort and Harry are working together, so to them Voldemort's involvement exonerates Harry.
Voldemort's potion was just that good of a trick. The only people it could fail to work on were people who were plotting at too low a level, and they were fooled by the time-turner test.
Maybe I'm being obtuse, but why is it a Voldemort calling card?
I think because it's the equivalent of cherry tapping to use a well-known and not-that-powerful magic to do the impossible, and Voldemort showed himself to be that kind of perfectionist.
Judging from the quotations that top the TVTropes page, Alan Rickman tends to play characters who engage in cherry tapping. So shouldn't they be suspecting Snape?
And why test Harry's time tuner if the potion rules him out completely?
Dumbledore received hints of a paradox if he moved to protect Harry before the Azkaban escape. So that highly increased the possibility Harry and time-travel was involved somehow, but it was possible that Harry had been used only as a messenger, rather than the more direct (Azkaban-going, Patronus-wielding, cloak-of-Invisibility-wearing) involvement that they also feared.