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alethiophile comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 6 - Less Wrong Discussion
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It's also worth noting that the letter does not only provide several orders of magnitude jump in the prior for whether magic exists or not, but also provides a method of testing its existence that is much lower-cost than before (beforehand, Harry would have had to do some fairly strenuous things to break The Masquerade; with the letter in hand, he merely needs to send a reply.)