in the Texas Sharpshooter example, is shooting a bunch of holes in a wall evidence that the shooter wanted to shoot these exact holes?

The difference is that we know bullet-holes come from people shooting guns, we've seen that happen many times, and so in this particular instance we can conclude there was a sharpshooter before we start wondering about his intentions. Whereas there's only one universe, and no regularity of the kind 'when you see a universe, there was a god who created it and usually intended it to be this way'.