There is an idea here, but it's a little muddled. Why should complexity matter for Pascal's mugging?
Well, the obvious answer to me is that, behind the scenes, you're calculating an expected value, for which you need a probability of the antagonist actually following through. More complex claims are harder to carry out, so they have lower probability.
A separate issue is that of having bounded utility, which is possible, but it should be possible to do Pascal's mugging even then, if the expected value of giving them money is higher than the expected value of not.
Anyhow, just "complexity" isn't quite a way around Pascal's mugging. It would be better to do a more complete assessment of the likelihood that the threat is carried out.
Why should complexity matter for Pascal's mugging?
Among other things, the ability of the mugger to communicate the threat depends on the complexity of the threat.
For background, see here.
In a comment on the original Pascal's mugging post, Nick Tarleton writes:
Coming across this again recently, it occurred to me that there might be a way to generalize Vassar's suggestion in such a way as to deal with Tarleton's more abstract formulation of the problem. I'm curious about the extent to which folks have thought about this. (Looking further through the comments on the original post, I found essentially the same idea in a comment by g, but it wasn't discussed further.)
The idea is that the Kolmogorov complexity of "3^^^^3 units of disutility" should be much higher than the Kolmogorov complexity of the number 3^^^^3. That is, the utility function should grow only according to the complexity of the scenario being evaluated, and not (say) linearly in the number of people involved. Furthermore, the domain of the utility function should consist of low-level descriptions of the state of the world, which won't refer directly to words uttered by muggers, in such a way that a mere discussion of "3^^^^3 units of disutility" by a mugger will not typically be (anywhere near) enough evidence to promote an actual "3^^^^3-disutilon" hypothesis to attention.
This seems to imply that the intuition responsible for the problem is a kind of fake simplicity, ignoring the complexity of value (negative value in this case). A confusion of levels also appears implicated (talking about utility does not itself significantly affect utility; you don't suddenly make 3^^^^3-disutilon scenarios probable by talking about "3^^^^3 disutilons").
What do folks think of this? Any obvious problems?