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DanielVarga comments on What topics would you like to see more of on LessWrong? - Less Wrong Discussion
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Let me mention that Nate Silver at 538 did something quite similar to your Knox post, just today:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/12/15/a-bayesian-take-on-julian-assange/
By the way, I downvoted the parent. It is nothing personal, but debates like those induced by the Knox post are not what I'd like to see more of here.