I suppose I should have been clear that by cold fusion in this context we were explicitly discussing the Pons-Fleischmann sort of set-up. I don't actually think that Pons and Fleischmann were frauds. I'm more inclined to believe that it was an example of poor controls and wishful thinking. I'm aware of other types of low-energy fusion such as fusors and polywells but know that I don't have anywhere near the expertise to evaluate them.

In any event, your first paragraph strongly argues strongly that I should discount my confidence estimates for other fields much more than I do.