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gwern comments on 2011 Intrade fee changes, or, Intrade considered no longer useful for LessWrongers - Less Wrong Discussion

21 Post author: gwern 02 January 2011 05:46PM

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Comment author: gwern 02 January 2011 07:00:35PM *  3 points [-]

assuming that this isn't raiding accounts as a prelude to shutting down (as a number of forumers claim)

Not that I think that it is impossible for this to be the truth; I just think it unlikely:

(My reasoning for the jump is that a year doesn't suffice to drain the dormant accounts at $60 a year, but two would drain most, and then the shut-down becomes a real possibility; and Intrade seems to've long been a marginal concern independent of any ill effects from this fee change.)

Comment author: Nick_Tarleton 02 January 2011 09:24:47PM *  0 points [-]

Contracts on "the market ceases to operate and this contract becomes worthless" should be seriously underpriced, no?

(edit: whoops, didn't even look at the links)

Comment author: gwern 02 January 2011 09:45:11PM 2 points [-]

Those are PB.com predictions; Intrade.com doesn't have such contracts as far as I know and I certainly wouldn't buy any contracts if they did, the new fees aside.

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