You're looking at Less Wrong's discussion board. This includes all posts, including those that haven't been promoted to the front page yet. For more information, see About Less Wrong.

SilasBarta comments on 2011 Intrade fee changes, or, Intrade considered no longer useful for LessWrongers - Less Wrong Discussion

21 Post author: gwern 02 January 2011 05:46PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (7)

You are viewing a single comment's thread.

Comment author: SilasBarta 03 January 2011 05:32:15PM 1 point [-]

Thanks for the warning. For my part, it sounds like a plan to drain the idle accounts, which mine is (started in August '08, last trade was in June '09). I'll probably just cash out.

Comment author: gwern 04 January 2011 10:24:57PM 0 points [-]

You're welcome; once you've cleared out, maybe you could write up a retrospective - what you traded, how much you profited, lessons learned etc. Perhaps not worth a main article, but perfectly good Discussion area material.

Comment author: SilasBarta 04 January 2011 10:59:35PM 8 points [-]

Probably the only important thing to say was how they screwed me on a swine flu bet. I bet that it would reach (IIRC) 10,000 cases in the US by the end of June '09. The bet specified that it would be determined by something like "the best estimates available at the time, as reported in major media sources". Then CDC decided to quit updating its current estimate two weeks before the deadline (while still below 10k), InTrade ruled that it could take the CDC's last update as the determinant, and so it ended the contract at zero (i.e. against me). This was despite all mainstream sources at the time reporting a confirmed count over 10k by the deadline.