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endoself comments on In Defense of Objective Bayesianism: MaxEnt Puzzle. - Less Wrong Discussion
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This seems wrong to me too. His prior shows that he has some other information about Peterson, but then he throws it out.
P(A|ε) = P(A & ε)/P(ε) = 0.1/0.2 = 0.5 != 0.8
This failure to use all of the evidence is exactly what Jaynes warns against for much of PT:LoS.