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yters comments on A Bayesian Argument for the Resurrection of Jesus - Less Wrong Discussion
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Why would the apostles all die martyrs deaths for someone who didn't live up to his promises? Especially since the gospels show they weren't of the most courageous character either. That is pretty convincing to me, I don't know of a good counter.
Also, if there were so many Christian communities so soon after Jesus' death, then there would be a good community of knowledge to filter false and true accounts of Jesus life.
Finally, why didn't any of the other unorthodox accounts start similar communities? Why are the communities so similar in their beliefs about Jesus, if it is quite likely to have been made up, as you suggest?
They did. There were plenty of wildly disparate sects of Christianity early on, out of whose beliefs the gospels that were declared noncanonical rose up in the first place. Most of these communities died out over time, although some lasted for centuries, and Gnostics, who existed in several branches and were the most significant competitors for what became "mainstream" Christianity, still exist today. I suggest reading up a bit on Gnostic mythology to see just how disimilar it is to all mainstream branches of Christianity.
As for why the apostles would die martyrs' deaths for someone who didn't live up to his promises, we have no reason to think they did. That is, they weren't killed for their beliefs after being given the option of recanting to have their lives spared. This is a popular meme, but there's no historical basis for ever suspecting it happened in the first place. jhwendy's link at the bottom of the page provides more information on this.
As for the Christian communities being able to filter true and false accounts of his life, we already know that they didn't; witness the proliferation of sects and gospels declared noncanonical. Most of them had probably never known him during his life.
Even if we take as given that the apostles died bravely defending the resurrection, you can't take people dying martyr's death as evidence for their beliefs, only for their level of belief. People have martyred themselves for many CONFLICTING ideologies. Islam and Christianity to pick 2 of the most obvious examples, can't both be correct.
Paul's letters explain this. The communities were so similar because they were all so strongly influenced by Paul.