Lydia McGrew responded to you saying:
... the earlier commentator who says that the probability is "approximately 1" that there would be made-up resurrection stories (and apparently thinks that this applies to the gospels) ignores various obvious distinctions. For example, the distinction between stories by people who had nothing to gain and everything to lose for making up such stories and people who had nothing to lose and something to gain by doing so. Also, the distinction between people's elaborating stories when they themselves were in a position to know what really happened and people who were not in a position to know what really happened.
We are talking in the paper about what the disciples themselves claimed. They were in a position to know whether what they were claiming was true or false, and they had a great deal to lose and nothing to gain by simply making up such tales. - link
Thanks for pointing that out. Needless to say I don't agree, but I respect her decision not to get in an endless internet argument about it.
I think LWers may be intrigued...
Tim McGrew, author of this excellent annotated bibliography on Bayesian reasoning, recently co-authored with his wife Lydia a Bayesian defense of the resurrection of Jesus. I interviewed Lydia for my podcast, here. Atheist Richard Carrier has leveled some objections to their article, but his objections are weak.
Have at it.